What is the likelihood of war with Hezbollah given the targeted attack on Deif?
After the attack on Mohammad Deif, Prof. Amatzia Baram of the University of Haifa estimated that Hezbollah terrorists would not change their approach in the north.
“Despite the assassination attempt, Hezbollah will not operate on a larger scale than before. It will continue with its usual approach – and will not increase the fire,” he assured.
“In the past, we have killed high-ranking commanders in Gaza, and Hezbollah has never responded to their killings.”
“Even when we eliminated seven Iranian generals in the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, including a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the response to the assassination was carried out by Iran alone – without any intervention from Hezbollah,” Baram added.
“Despite the direct and close relationship between Hezbollah and the Iranians, the organization did not respond with more massive fire towards the Galilee – because there is a clear division of labor between the organizations,” he explained.
“Hezbollah usually reacts violently when a brigade commander or front-line commander is eliminated, but the organization’s senior officials do not feel responsible for avenging the blood of a Palestinian commander – no matter how high-ranking – and are taking unnecessary risks by starting a full-scale war with Israel,” Baram said.
Possible involvement of the Lebanese branch of Hamas
Although Hezbollah members apparently see no reason to retaliate, the Lebanese branch of Hamas may want to respond. “Even if it resorts to retaliation, Hezbollah will constrain Hamas in Lebanon and warn them against opening massive fire – because the responsibility for this area ultimately lies with Nasrallah.”
“Hezbollah has absolute control and full oversight of everything Hamas does in southern Lebanon, and I believe Hezbollah is now monitoring Hamas even more closely – to keep them in check,” he added.
“Nasrallah is not ready for Hamas to involve Hezbollah in a full-scale war with Israel. They are fed up with the current war of attrition and therefore, in my opinion, will not expand their radius of fire,” Baram said.
In addition, Baram said that a sharp response with massive fire towards the north by the Lebanese branch of Hamas or Hezbollah would be a confirmation of Deif’s killing, which is not in Hamas’ interest. “As long as there is no official statement from Hamas that Muhammad Deif was killed, no one will try to avenge his death. If Deif is indeed eliminated, Hamas has no interest at the moment in informing the public and confirming this news – because this would be a seal of approval for the IDF’s success.”
“If Deif is actually eliminated, Sinwar will of course order Hamas in Lebanon to act against Israel. But the actual oversight of the organization in Lebanon rests with Hezbollah. Hezbollah does not want to get involved in a full-scale war with Israel and will therefore ensure that Hamas does not go too far,” Baram concluded.
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