The West has finally allowed Ukraine to strike back against Russia – and it seems to be working

CNN
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For more than two years, Bankir and his men have been trying to fend off Russian attacks along the Ukrainian front line. But only now can they finally strike where it hurts: on Russian territory.

The recent permission from the US and other allies to strike in Russia with Western weapons has had a huge impact, Bankir said. “We have destroyed targets in Russia, which has enabled several successful counter-offensives. The Russian military can no longer feel impunity and security,” the senior officer of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) told CNN. For security reasons, he asked to be identified only by his call sign.

After months of being on the defensive due to a lack of ammunition and personnel, Kyiv can now finally fully benefit from Western military aid, which has been flowing to the country since last month after months of delays.

Soldiers at the front report that the deliveries are gradually having an impact – especially because they can now use the arsenal for attacks across the border.

“We can see the impact of the aid every day. Artillery, multiple rocket launchers with longer ranges and different types of ammunition, as well as submunitions… this affects the overall picture on the battlefield,” Ivan, an officer in the 148th Artillery Brigade, told CNN. He also asked that his full name not be published for security reasons.

“We are deploying the most effective weapons systems in the areas where the Russians are trying to break through the defense lines, and there has been a significant slowdown in the Russian advance,” he added.

Although Kyiv failed to recapture large parts of its territory, the city successfully prevented what could have been a catastrophe: the occupation of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.

Parts of the northern Kharkiv region, including the cities of Izyum, Kupiansk and Balakliya, fell into Russian hands shortly after Moscow launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The occupation was brutal. When the area was liberated in the fall of 2022, Ukrainian troops found evidence of alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces, including several mass graves and torture chambers.

In May of this year, Russia launched another cross-border attack on the region, attempting to take advantage of the shortage of ammunition in Ukraine ahead of the expected arrival of the first Western weapons.

The consequences were deadly. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that at least 174 civilians were killed and 690 injured in Ukraine in May. This was the highest number of civilian casualties in a year.

More than half of the civilian casualties occurred in Kharkiv – although the region covers a relatively small area compared to the entire country.

International security expert Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Ukrainian defense official and co-director of foreign relations and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, told CNN that the reoccupation of previously liberated areas north of Kharkiv was a “tragic moment” for Ukraine.

But it also marked an important turning point.

“This triggered a change in the position of our Western partners and encouraged them to at least partially lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons,” he said.

Fearing escalation, the United States and other Western allies had long banned Kyiv from using their weapons to launch attacks inside Russia and limited their use to Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.

This allowed Russia to use the border areas as a safe base for offensives and missile attacks.

“(Russia) knew that Ukraine did not have the capacity to attack these targets on Russian territory,” Melnyk said.

“If the decision (to provide aid) had not been made, if we had lost American support and military aid, that would have changed everything.”

But the possibility of a Russian reoccupation of parts of the Kharkiv region convinced some of Ukraine’s key allies, including the United States, to lift the restrictions. This allowed Kyiv to attack and destroy or severely damage key targets in Russia.

According to Ukrainian defense authorities, these were a regimental command post in the Belgorod region, an ammunition depot in Voronezh, a drone facility and an airfield in Krasnodar, communications centers in Bryansk and several naval bases in occupied Crimea.

The introduction of long-range missile systems with ATACMS is a particular turning point, Melnyk said. While Ukraine was previously able to attack targets in Russia using Ukrainian-made drones, ATACMS make these attacks far more efficient.

“Speed ​​is critical,” Melnyk explained. “In drone attacks, the Russians have hours to react because they can detect Ukrainian drones early. Russian pilots can drink a coffee and smoke a cigarette before jumping into the cockpit and flying off to shoot down the drones. With the ATACMS, it’s a matter of minutes,” he said.

Konrad Muzyka, an independent defense analyst and director of Rochan Consulting who recently returned from eastern Ukraine, said Russia was also no longer able to attack the Kharkiv region with S-300 and S-400 missile systems.

“Ukraine began HIMARS attacks on targets in the Belgorod region, forcing the Russians to move their S-300 system, which they used to attack Kharkiv, much further away. Now Kharkiv is beyond the range of the Russian S-300 systems,” he said.

While Russia has switched to glide bombs – guided munitions with folding wings dropped by fighter jets from a distance of 60 to 70 kilometers – and is thus beyond the range of Ukrainian air defenses, the elimination of the S-300 threat has brought at least some relief to Kharkiv.

But even though the new weapons make some difference, Ukraine is still far from being able to expel Russian forces from its territory.

Another officer from the 148th Artillery Brigade, call sign Senator, told CNN that Ukraine needs much more.

“It is not enough to turn the tide at the front. It is enough to hold back the enemy, but not enough to dramatically change the situation,” he said.

“The enemy is now exhausted but not destroyed,” he said, pointing to the fact that Russia still has complete air superiority over Ukraine.

Kiev is now pinning its hopes on the imminent delivery of F-16 fighter jets – the first Ukrainian pilots should complete their training in the USA in the summer.

But Muzyka said it was by no means certain that the jets would bring about a fundamental change for Ukraine.

“The F-16s are fighter jets from the 1980s and 1990s and their capabilities are inferior to those of the most modern Russian fighters,” he said, adding that the latest Russian jets would likely have the upper hand in a dogfight with the F-16.

However, Ukraine can still use the F-16 to deprive Russia of control of the skies – and to fend off Russian planes that drop bombs.

But the new weapons are only one piece of the puzzle.

“Without the additional package, the situation of Ukrainians would be much worse now. At the same time, however, the current situation is not only the result of a lack of action by the US Congress, but also the result of decisions made or not made in Kyiv, especially regarding mobilization,” Muzyka said.

“The decision to launch a broader mobilization was probably just as important, if not more important, and it came too late,” he said. The new mobilization law, which requires all men between the ages of 18 and 60 to register with the Ukrainian military, came into force in May.

He said that while Ukraine had managed to recruit a significant number of men over the past month and a half, it would take some time for these new soldiers to be trained and ready for front-line service.

“The Ukrainians will be in a very difficult situation until August or September, when the first mobilized men arrive at the front. If they can make it by then, there is a good chance that they will be able to stabilize the situation from August onwards. Until then, however, further Russian successes are very likely.”

Muzyka said that given the new weapons and the imminent reinforcement of battalions and brigades with new recruits, Ukraine must decide on its next steps.

“It is unclear what the plans are. What is the strategy for counter-offensives? The problem is that Ukraine is waiting to see what equipment the West can supply it with, and the West is waiting to see what plans Ukraine has for the future,” he said.

Time is running out. Experts believe that the US aid package of 60 billion dollars agreed at the beginning of the year will last for a year or 18 months at best.

Ukraine’s allies made new weapons pledges this week and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the lifting of all restrictions on their use at a NATO summit in Washington DC.

Given the possibility of former US President Donald Trump winning a second term in November, he does not have much time to lose.

Maria Kostenko and Daria Tarasova-Markina contributed to this report.