Trump assassination makes election victory more likely, says Ian Bremmer

The apparent assassination attempt occurred at a time when the country was already deeply divided, with many Americans convinced that their political opponents were determined to destroy American democracy. he said in a video posted on X.

“This is the worst thing that can happen in such an environment and I am deeply concerned that this is a harbinger of much more political violence and social instability,” he added.

When similar incidents have occurred in other countries in the past, they have often not ended well, warned Bremmer.

In the short term, the image of Trump, his face smeared with blood, raising his fist in the air as Secret Service agents escort him to safety will provide a dramatic contrast to President Joe Biden, he said.

Trump’s Democratic opponent is resisting calls to drop out of the race, citing his disastrous performance at last month’s debate. He appeared frail and confused, heightening existing concerns about his age.

“It makes it more likely that Trump will win,” Bremmer said Saturday, as Trump’s response to the shooting was “the opposite of weak.”

In fact, just minutes after the shooting, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that he would support Trump, saying, “The last time America had such a strong candidate was Theodore Roosevelt.”

Ideally, America’s political leadership would unite to condemn the political violence by having lawmakers meet in a joint session of Congress and commit to a peaceful transition, Bremmer said.

But he seriously doubts that will happen. Instead, Americans should prepare for more violence across the political spectrum, he warned, pointing out that the United States has more weapons available than any other G7 country.

While immediate parallels have been drawn to the assassination of President Ronald Reagan in 1981, other political observers have pointed to more recent examples, such as January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to disrupt the process of finally certifying Biden’s 2020 election victory. Other examples include the shootings of Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in 2017 and then-Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords in 2011.

Political extremism and disinformation are now being used as weapons, especially through social media, and US opponents such as Russia, Iran and North Korea are seeking to foment even more violence and instability, Bremmer said.

Given that Americans perceive an existential threat to their democracy, the willingness to use violence may be higher than at any time since 1968, when Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy were assassinated, and perhaps even higher than at any time since the Civil War.

Free and fair elections have also taken place elsewhere in the world recently, including in France, Great Britain, India and Mexico. But the USA is the only major democracy that is in a serious crisis, said Bremmer.

“People need to realize that America’s political institutions are under threat and that they need our collective protection as citizens to uphold the values ​​we believe in,” he added. “If we continue to get lost in blame, polarization and the weaponization of politics, we will lose our democracy.”