Can Hezbollah’s missiles and drones overwhelm Israel’s famous Iron Dome in the event of a full-scale war? – Firstpost

Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah have been trading blows for eight months, but the intensity has increased significantly in the past two weeks. On June 12, a day after Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed a Hezbollah commander, the group fired a barrage of rockets into northern Israel.

On Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned that a decision on all-out war with Hezbollah was imminent. Military experts and political analysts are now concerned about whether Israel’s famed Iron Dome defense system can withstand the sheer volume and complexity of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal.

What are the weaknesses of the Iron Dome? Can Hezbollah exploit them to overwhelm the defense system? We explain.

But first..

What is the Iron Dome? How does it work?

Iron Dome is an advanced air defense system developed by Israel to intercept and destroy short-range missiles, artillery shells and mortars. It officially entered service in 2011 and has been a cornerstone of Israel’s defense strategy ever since. The system uses radar to detect approaching threats and launches interceptor missiles to neutralize them before they can cause damage.

The Iron Dome consists of three main components: a tracking radar, a battle management and weapons control (BMC) system, and a missile launcher. When the radar detects an incoming projectile, it calculates its trajectory and determines whether it poses a threat to populated areas or critical infrastructure. If so, the BMC directs one or more interceptor missiles to intercept the threat in the air, minimizing the risk of damage on the ground.

The system’s impressive success rate, which stands at around 90 percent, has made it a model for other countries seeking to strengthen their defense capabilities. Its ability to protect against a range of threats has provided a sense of security to Israeli civilians, particularly in regions frequently targeted by rocket attacks.

What are the shortcomings of the Iron Dome?

Despite its vaunted effectiveness, the Iron Dome is not infallible.

Capacity limitation: A critical vulnerability lies in limited capacity. While the system is capable of handling a flood of incoming threats, there is a threshold beyond which it can become overwhelmed. This happened in October last year, when a barrage of around 5,000 rounds of Hamas weapons hit Israel.

High-precision ammunition: CNN quoted an Israeli official as saying it was more likely that some Iron Dome batteries would be overwhelmed if Hezbollah carried out a large-scale attack using primarily precision weapons, which could pose a challenge for the system to defend against.

Weak interception ability: The main challenge in intercepting an artillery rocket is destroying the warhead. If the interceptor hits the rear end of the rocket, it will only damage the empty rocket motor tube, but this will have no effect on the destruction caused by the warhead. Intercepting a rocket can only be successful if the artillery rocket’s warhead is destroyed, as this will prevent it from reaching the ground and exploding.

A 2014 analysis by Theodore Postol in MIT Technology Review found that the actual interception rate may be as low as five percent. This is largely because interceptors often fail to destroy the warheads of incoming missiles. Instead, they may simply redirect the missiles in a different direction, leaving considerable room for error and potential damage.

Can Hezbollah exploit these deficits?

Hezbollah will likely be able to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome batteries. CNN quoted three US officials as saying they had serious concerns that in the event of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north.

The numerical advantage: Hezbollah could easily pursue a strategy similar to that used by Hamas in the October 7 attack. The group has an estimated 150,000 missile weapons inventory. Using several of these weapons simultaneously could be a daunting challenge. In a full-scale conflict, a coordinated, massive barrage could overwhelm the Iron Dome, allowing a few missiles to penetrate and cause damage.

The distance factor: When Iran fired missiles toward Israel in April in retaliation for the Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria, Iron Dome was able to quickly stop the attack. This is because the distance between Iran and Israel is quite large. The time it takes for a missile fired from Iran to reach Israel is more than enough to prepare defenses. This is unlikely if Hezbollah attacks from its base in Lebanon, near the Israeli border.

Previous violation: Hezbollah recently claimed to have hit and destroyed an Iron Dome battery at a military base in Ramot Naftali in northern Israel. This alleged attack, if confirmed, would be the first documented attack on such an anti-aircraft system. Hezbollah released a video showing aerial footage of the base and allegedly footage of the missile used in the attack. This incident underscores the group’s increasing ability to attack and potentially overwhelm Israel’s missile defense systems.

Use of cheap drones: Drones have proven effective against the Iron Dome system because they can operate at high speeds and low altitudes and often go undetected. Hezbollah says it has used commercial drones to gather intelligence and drop explosives. The Washington PostThese drones can navigate around natural obstacles such as mountains and ravines, taking advantage of blind spots in Israel’s tracking systems. The Israeli military could mistake them for birds or its own drones, and even if they are detected, their erratic flight paths make them difficult to intercept. This ability allows Hezbollah to conduct reconnaissance and could also be useful in strike missions against the Iron Dome.

In short

Although Iron Dome has proven to be a robust defense system, it is not invincible. Hezbollah’s extensive and technologically advanced arsenal, coupled with strategic and tactical planning, presents a formidable challenge. Whether Hezbollah can completely overwhelm Iron Dome remains uncertain, but the possibility of significant fractures in Israel’s defense network in the event of a large-scale conflict is a real and worrying possibility. The international community is closely watching tensions escalate, knowing that the consequences of such a conflict could extend far beyond the immediate region.

With contributions from agencies

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