Czech President: “No significant breakthrough in the war in Ukraine is to be expected in the foreseeable future”

Watch the event

The support needed to enable the Ukrainians to fully recapture their territory is “not realistic at this point in time,” Czech President Petr Pavel argued on Friday.

Pavel presented this sobering reality at an Atlantic Council front-page event in Houston, Texas, following the NATO summit in Washington, where allies agreed on a “bridge” to alliance membership for Ukraine.

“We cannot expect a significant breakthrough on the front in the foreseeable future,” he argued, later clarifying that if Ukraine holds the front and Russia does not achieve major successes, breakthroughs could come late this year or early next year. “We have to keep in mind who the enemy is, and Russia definitely has much greater resources … than Ukraine.”

After the NATO summit, the Czech president said he was “positively surprised” by the alliance’s response to Ukraine’s needs. The allies had concluded bilateral security agreements with Ukraine and committed to providing more financial and military support. “I think that even (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky) was reassured, although he had not received an invitation to the alliance.”

Asked when that invitation might be extended, Pavel said the Ukrainian military already cooperates “smoothly” with NATO in a number of areas – but the war is an “obstacle”. “As soon as we have a ceasefire and peace negotiations begin, we should also continue with integration in parallel,” he said.

Below are more highlights from the conversation, moderated by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe, which covered the Czech Republic’s support for Ukraine, its approach to China, and hopes for European autonomy.

Wait

• Pavel argued that Ukraine’s partners should now strive to “convince” Russia that it “cannot achieve significant successes on the battlefield.” That, he said, would bring them “to the negotiating table.”

• “And when the negotiations then begin, … our position should not be to legalize the occupied territories as Russian,” he clarified, “but to declare them temporarily occupied territories.”

• “To achieve this, we must equip Ukraine with everything it needs to truly hold the line,” he said.

• The Czech Republic has taken a “special forces approach” to assisting Ukraine, the president explained: “Act first, ask questions later,” he said. With few artillery supplies left for Ukraine, Prague has instead stationed artillery in other countries and pooled funds from NATO allies to buy ammunition for Ukraine.
• “We have funding for about half a million rounds,” he said, adding that “this will fully cover the needs of Ukrainians” and even replenish reserves. He said he wants to expand the model to other types of equipment.

Unity on China

• At the same time, allies should make it clear to China that “it is not in their interest to be such a close ally with Russia,” Pavel said.

• Noting that four partner countries from the Indo-Pacific region participated in the NATO summit, Pavel stated that allies should be “concerned” about security in the region, as Euro-Atlantic security “cannot be separated from security in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere”.

• A Russian victory would “embolden and empower China,” he said, adding that the Indo-Pacific countries and NATO “stand together in this global security environment” because they share the same values.

• Pavel said that while China is a “superpower” in many ways, it is also in some ways “dependent” on the “democratic world,” for example in trade. But the West has “no common policy toward China,” the president said, warning that China is using this to divide the West “for its own benefit.”

Friendly autonomy

• Pavel said that while European countries, including the Czech Republic, have reduced their dependence on Russian oil and gas, there is “still room for more coordination.” This summer, the Czech Republic and Germany began pushing the European Union (EU) to hold talks on officially ending energy imports from Russia.

• With the upcoming US election and the possibility of a repeat Donald Trump presidency raising concerns about the US role in transatlantic defence, some European NATO members argue that they need to reduce their military dependence on the United States. The EU “loves the word autonomous” in defence, economics, energy and more, Pavel said. “But when Europe gets into trouble, we look across the ocean.”

• Ideas such as creating an EU army, Pavel argued, “make no sense” because such efforts would “duplicate what already exists.” Rather, European countries should “work with what they have,” he said, by strengthening NATO’s European pillar.

• These efforts to reduce military dependence should not be directed against the US, but rather be seen as a “joint” development with the US, he said. “The US needs an equal partner in Europe, not a dependent child.”

Katherine Walla is deputy editorial director at the Atlantic Council.

Watch the full event

further reading

Mon., 8 July 2024

Why the EU needs American liquefied natural gas

Brief description
From
John M. Roberts, Ariel Cohen

Europe faces difficult choices in the face of Russia’s unexpected re-entry into European gas markets. In this brief, the authors argue that Europe will continue to rely on gas imports from non-Russian sources such as the United States for many years to come.

Image: President Emmanuel Macron welcomes his Czech counterpart Petr Pavel for a working dinner at the Elysée Palace in Paris on December 20, 2023. Photo by Stephane Lemouton/Pool/ABACAPRESS.COM