A look at the Cubs’ playoff chances with one series before the All-Star break

The Chicago Cubs are in a really strange position heading into their final series before the All-Star break this weekend in St. Louis. It’s a real “glass half full, glass half empty” situation when looking at their playoff chances just over halfway through the season. Plus, the trade deadline is just 18 days away, so the Cubs are now at a point where they have to be realistic about their chances of playing meaningful baseball in September and hopefully October. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the numbers.

The glass is half empty

With a record of 45-49, the Cubs are currently tied with the Cincinnati Reds for last place in the National League Central Division. They are nine games out of the division leader and have a record four games under .500. Despite a franchise-record start in March and April that saw them reach an 18-12 record (.600 win percentage) to start the season, May and June were marred by injuries — and losses. Below is the Cubs’ win/loss percentage by month:

If you feel like you’ve seen a version of this movie before, you have. It was called the 2023 Cubs, who I wrote similar articles about over the course of last season as the team raced into the home stretch. That team was a .500 team in April, a .357 team in May, a .569 team in June and July, a .667 (!!) team in August, and a .429 team in September. A team that ultimately finished just above .500 at 83-79 and was one game out of a playoff spot. Now, those two teams are built differently and struggle with different issues. However, it’s an instructive reminder that the road to a .500 season isn’t a series of .500 months — it’s a wild series of ups and downs that settle somewhere in the middle.

The Cubs have a number of problems that aren’t easily fixed with a trade or two. The bullpen has been worked on all year. It’s not entirely clear if anyone has taken on the closer or setup role. The three most successful relievers in 2023 all spent some time on the injured list, and two of them (Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather) are both still there — although Merryweather made a successful rehab start earlier this week, throwing a scoreless inning and recording two strikeouts at Iowa.

The people who believe the Cubs should sell look at this list of teams in the Wild Card race. While they acknowledge that the Cubs have a real chance statistically, three games out of the final Wild Card spot on July 12 leading up to the Midsummer Classic, they look at this chart and point to the number of teams the Cubs have to outscore and the -5 run differential. They argue that this probably won’t go the way fans on Chicago’s north side want it to:

ESPN

The glass is half-full

But there are signs of hope for Cubs fans, and it’s not just the good news of Merryweather’s rehab start or the fact that the Cubs just swept the American League East’s leading Baltimore Orioles. As you can see from the latest FanGraphs table of playoff odds, the Cubs’ chances are rising:

FanGraphs

That’s a 13.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. That gives them the third-best chance in the National League Central and just a touch ahead of the third-place Pirates. Before the break, they have a showdown against the second-place St. Louis Cardinals.

As I wrote earlier this season, the Cubs’ schedule has been very packed this season. And while there are still tough series against the Cardinals, Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Guardians and New York Yankees remaining, those games make up 22 of the remaining 68 matchups. The majority of the Cubs’ home stretch schedule consists of games against teams that have struggled a bit in 2024. I’ll write a more detailed breakdown of the upcoming schedule during the All-Star break.

In addition, the Cubs’ starting pitching has been solid for most of the season. The 3.63 ERA in 499 innings is the third-best in the National League. This number is especially impressive considering that the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation have been quite an adventure for the Cubs this season due to injuries to veteran Kyle Hendricks, who has thrown 49 innings as a starter this season with an ERA of 8.82.

The Cubs’ offense has underperformed so far this season, but has shown signs of life recently. Their team wRC+ of 96 shows that their run-scoring power has been 4 percent worse than the league average this season. However, bats have picked up significantly in July and the team has a wRC+ of 115, which is significantly better than the 101 they posted in March and April when they set a franchise-record 18 wins before May 1.

All of this sets up quite a series against the Cubs’ biggest rival in St. Louis this weekend. The Cubs have currently won four games in a row after sweeping the Orioles. If they can continue that winning streak and potentially win three of four games against the Cardinals, they could greatly improve their chances before the break. If they struggle in St. Louis, this brief revival of hope on Chicago’s north side could be snuffed out before the fire is even properly lit.