bne IntelliNews – Russia’s war-related brain drain is reversing, up to 45% of emigrants are returning home

Recent studies show that 15 to 45 percent of Russian emigrants have returned to Russia, reversing the brain drain that began after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

There have been two major waves of emigration. The first occurred immediately after the invasion in February 2022, when conscientious objectors left the country due to the unprovoked aggression of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The second wave occurred after the Kremlin announced a partial mobilization in September 2022 to support the stalled military campaign that resulted in a crushing defeat for the Russian army in the Kharkiv offensive, during which the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) recaptured hundreds of square kilometers of territory from Russian forces. Men of military age fled the country to avoid conscription, although most of those forcibly conscripted into military service came from Russia’s poorest regions, according to a study of bank deposit dynamics.

Since the war began, up to a million Russian citizens have left the country. A significant proportion of those who left are well-educated, urbanized and mobile, and represent valuable long-term human capital for host communities, wrote scholars Emil Kamalov and Ivetta Sergeeva in a recent article for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Many IT experts are among the emigrants because they can do their work remotely and continue to receive a salary even in exile. This is a headache for the Kremlin because these IT experts are among the most productive Russian citizens and are difficult to replace.

“The return of these individuals to Russia indicates a significant shift in migration patterns over the past two years,” conclude Kamalov and Sergeeva.

Western politicians were quick to comment on this trend, pointing to the potential benefits that the influx of skilled Russian migrants into their countries would bring. However, the ongoing process of return migration may challenge these initial expectations as Russia appears to be regaining its skilled workforce.

There are several reasons for the return of the emigrants. Fear of conscription has disappeared after the Kremlin’s campaign to increase troops through a campaign to recruit volunteers was very successful and the army has grown by about 15 percent since the beginning of the war – enough to compensate for losses at the front. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out a general mobilization of the population.

Another factor is the search for work in other countries and the growing hostility towards the Russian emigrants. While the arrival of tens of thousands of Russians arriving with income and considerable savings has been an economic boon for countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia, over time these people have failed to integrate into local communities and have faced increasing resentment. While a Russian passport allows Russians visa-free entry into many countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) and gives them the right to work there, some countries such as Kazakhstan have limited the duration of the residence permit for political reasons, forcing emigrants to move on after a year.

Others have returned home thanks to Russia’s booming economy. The general labor shortage is even worse in IT and professional services, which has pushed up wages dramatically and made it easier to find a good job. If anything, the war has improved the quality of life for average Russians, as real wages have risen dramatically and more emigrants have returned home.

However, the influx of returnees may be only temporary, as many of these professionals remain dissatisfied with the Kremlin’s permanent break with the West, analysts say.

“Return is often a temporary option to regroup and gather resources for a new emigration attempt. According to data from the OutRush research project, of the 16% of respondents who returned to Russia between March 2022 and September 2022, about 80% had emigrated again by the summer of 2023. For some, organizing a new emigration attempt may take years, not months,” the analysts say.

But in the short term, emigrants are expected to continue returning home as long as tensions remain high and Russia’s economy continues to flourish.

“The return of emigrants is likely to continue, potentially mitigating the impact of the 2022 exodus. The trend will be closely monitored as it has significant implications for both Russia and the countries that received the first wave of migrants,” the researchers write.