Value of Things: Key Player of the Texans – Xavier Hutchinson

Professional and amateur sports are perhaps the finest form of entertainment known to man. A wise man once said that in the history of drama, comedy and tragedy there have only been 100 original stories. If you look at most movies, television shows and stage plays, you will find that anything new is actually quite old. Almost every story reminds us of another that has been told before.

Sports are not haphazard. We literally don’t know what the future will hold. However, if we apply the same paradigm to the sports world, we see some common themes that repeat over the years. One of those themes is that every team has a player who performs out of nowhere. Sometimes these great seasons are a stepping stone to something bigger in the future. Sometimes they are one-off events. We don’t know what is what until we see it.

Of course, the opposite is also true. We see players we’ve always counted on suddenly stop performing. The Astros owners and their minions have thrown around the term “back of the baseball card.” I suppose there is some wisdom in this conundrum, but that wisdom is not enough. On the last baseball card (or football card), all mistakes and all successes are there for all to see. Usually, players are always productive until they aren’t.

The Houston Texans are at a new point in their evolution as a franchise. They have their franchise quarterback. They have young and innovative coaches. They have players at the skill positions who have been productive, if not in Houston, then elsewhere. The only question that remains is which guys will carry the brunt of the load. We can probably guess what numbers CJ Stroud will put up if he stays healthy. We don’t know how those numbers will be distributed among his targets.

I remember being so excited when the Texans drafted Xavier Hutchinson. As a stats guy, I value players who actually produce. Yes, a sixth-round pick is hardly a good percentage bet, but few sixth-round picks have the production that Hutchinson produced at Iowa State.

2020: 64 catches, 771 yards, 4 TD
2021: 83 catches, 987 yards, 5 TD
2022: 107 catches, 1171 yards, 6 TD

These numbers immediately combine two things that I like. First, Hutchinson was clearly not a one-off. He didn’t put up great numbers in his first two college seasons, but when someone is a productive college player for three years, that means something. There are so many players who go from nobody to superstar in one season. It’s often hard to trust those accomplishments.

Second, he got better every season. Hutchinson was Iowa State’s number one target all three seasons. Yet he continued to improve each season. That is, not only did he get better, but his numbers got better, even though every defensive coordinator knew he was the main player.

The path from college to the NFL is obviously bigger than the jump from high school to college. Every guy on the field and on the sidelines was probably the best player on his college team. That’s especially true for the guys from the smaller schools. What we saw with Hutchinson was that he had to make some adjustments after high school. He eventually made those adjustments and became a great player.

2023: 19 targets, 8 receptions, 90 yards, 0 TD

There’s no sugarcoating those numbers. They’re terrible. If you’re catching less than 50 percent of the balls you’re aiming for, it either means you’re not getting clearances or you’re dropping a lot of balls. Hutchinson didn’t drop a lot of balls. That’s the biggest adjustment a player can make. What happens when you’re not the most talented athlete on the field?

We’ve seen slow wide receivers have a lot of success in the league. Being slow just means you have to do something else incredibly well. That might be running routes or finding gaps in the zone. It might mean evading a defender when winning the ball or catching balls in a scrum. Stefon Diggs himself was drafted in the sixth round, so it’s possible.

But here we come back to the drama of the sport. The Texans have several players who fit that description. We’ve previously profiled John Metchie and Brevin Jordan. Steven Sims showed off his skills as a punt returner and could take a step forward as a wide receiver. Robert Woods is technically still on the roster. Noah Brown dominated at times last year, too.

We’re seeing a general pattern here. In the list of key players, we see very few players that are going to be decisive in whether or not this season will be another playoff season. What we’re seeing is more of a question of who will perform and who won’t. Each player has a compelling story and each would advance their own career with a solid season. It’s just a question of who is capable of doing it at that point, because not everyone can. So let’s hear from you in the comments. Who do you think is most likely to take that step forward this season?