Analysis: Dependence on the Iron Dome Doctrine undermines Israel’s deterrence
For the past decade, Israel’s air defenses, particularly Iron Dome, gave Israel the time and protection to avoid a major war in Gaza. That changed on October 7, 2023, when Hamas invaded Israel and massacred and kidnapped more than 1,200 people using a human wave that easily penetrated Israel’s high-tech defenses.
A decade of reliance on technology and reductions in ground forces has led to extreme neglect of basic security doctrines. Since October 7, Israel has continued to rely on air defenses to protect itself from rocket fire from Gaza, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed proxy states in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. In any case, the decision to rely on an air defense-based strategy has weakened Israel’s deterrent power.
In the north, for example, Israel preferred to evacuate civilians rather than fight Hezbollah.
Israel’s historic leadership, dating back to David Ben-Gurion, was clear that the best defense against Israel’s enemies was to go on the offensive and defeat them quickly.
Ben-Gurion was aware that the Jewish state would be in danger if it allowed Israel’s enemies to encircle it with state-of-the-art weapons systems.
Therefore, Israel always tried to base its doctrine on the acquisition of new, modern and groundbreaking weapons and to deprive its enemies of similar weapons. If necessary, Israel was ready to make sacrifices and send soldiers on daring missions to do everything possible to protect the state.
All this has changed in the last 15 years under the Netanyahu government. The country was no longer prepared for daring, quick wars, but developed into a society surrounded by walls and fences.
This allowed enemies like Hezbollah and Hamas to gain exponential power, and Israeli security experts told the public that this was OK because Israel was also improving its military capabilities. Israelis were told that precision munitions could neutralize threats.
Since 2015, Iran has advanced closer to Israel’s borders, deployed troops into Syria and built up militias in Iraq and Yemen.
While the militias acquired new missiles and drones, Israel relied on unchanged air defense systems and doctrine. Although Israel told itself it had a new “momentum” doctrine in the army, it did not really seem to believe it. This was because it was training for wars on multiple fronts, but ultimately did not want to participate in wars that required such rapid maneuvers and short-term casualties.
Since October 7, Israel has continued to rely on a doctrine based on air defense as a strategy. It has evacuated the north and the south and believes that air defense will continue to buy it time.
The Iron Dome concept of buying Israel time to decide worked when Israel’s enemies could not penetrate its air defenses and the Israeli population was not greatly affected by the war. But even in the previous conflicts, which were short, living under endless rocket fire and evacuating the borders was not a winning strategy.
Israel’s current enemies are not deterred by this. They believe they have lured Israel into a trap in which Israel will continue to rely on precision strikes and proportional attacks.
ISRAEL’S FIRST LEADERS understood that this would be a recipe for disaster. Israel cannot face its enemies head to head. Israel is a small state and cannot afford to end up like Lebanon or Iraq. It is a modern state that depends on trade and wants to be part of the First World. Endless wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and half a dozen other Iranian proxies are not a recipe for Israel’s historic success.
It was once believed that Iron Dome would buy Israel time to make rational decisions rather than rushing it into hasty wars. Today it is clear that reliance on this concept as a strategy has led to endless caution and the fear of waging major wars to deter enemies.
Instead, they would rather allow groups like Hezbollah to continue to dictate the tempo of the war. Hezbollah says it will stop its attacks as soon as Israel ends the war in Gaza.
Essentially, this means that whenever Israel clashes with Hamas, Hezbollah has secured the “right” to bombard northern Israel with rockets, drones and missiles.
The most destructive aspects of the October 7 war are now being felt on several fronts. Hezbollah’s ability to create a security zone inside Israel and to wage a war between wars inside Israel is a historic disaster for Israel.
What is the “new norm” in the Middle East?
This week, Hezbollah killed two Israelis in the Golan Heights. Its drones continue to wreak havoc.
A year ago, when a man who had infiltrated Israel from Lebanon planted an explosive device near Metulla, it was considered a big deal. Today, 6,000 Hezbollah rockets and drones are the new norm.
Killing Israelis in the north is becoming the new norm, and only because strategists are placing all their trust in air defenses.
This is reminiscent of previous historical follies, such as the Maginot Line between France and Germany.
Countries that rely solely on their defensive walls will inevitably end up with enemies who know how to breach those defensive walls. That is what history teaches us. Israel’s historical leaders understood that.
Israel must rethink its reliance on air defense, which previously served only to buy time but weakened Israel’s deterrent power and prevented it from making the difficult decisions necessary to keep the country safe.
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