Russian missile attack on children’s hospital was probably intentional

Russia’s deadly missile attack on Kyiv on July 8 was the result of sophisticated planning and inventive tactics. It disabled one of the world’s densest air defense networks and likely hit the Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital, as the Kremlin intended, according to a Kyiv Post analysis of available open-source evidence.

The Russian attack began with a decoy tactic, presumably designed to divert the attention of Ukrainian air defenses in one direction and provide Russian planners with real-time information on where Ukraine’s normally mobile air defense units were located.

According to Ukrainian military bloggers and local air defense networks, at around 1:30 a.m. on Monday morning, four Russian Tu-95MS (NATO Bear) bombers began the attack by firing four cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace over the Caspian Sea.

The salvo flew northwest. According to later statements by the Ukrainian Air Force, citing reports from missile defense units and recovered debris, three Kh-101 cruise missiles were launched over the Zhytomyr and Cherkasy regions bordering Kyiv. It is unclear what happened to the fourth missile.

What is clear, however, is that about six hours later – during which time the flight paths of additional Kh-101 missiles could have been programmed – more TU-95 bombers entered the airspace over the central-southern Russian regions of Volgograd and Saratov and fired a dozen more missiles.

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The Kh-101 is a modern, ground-based and jam-proof weapon that, according to the Financial Times, contains electronic components from, among others, the Swiss company STMicroelectronics and the US companies Texas Instruments, Analog Devices and Intel.

According to Ukrainian military observer Oleh Zhdanov, Russian ground troops stationed in Crimea and Russia’s Kursk regions each fired a modern Iskander-M ballistic missile toward central Ukraine.

At the same time, two Air Force Tu-22M-3 supersonic bombers reportedly fired two Soviet-era Kh-22 anti-ship missiles over western Russia, two or three Su-34 fighter-bombers fired three Kh-69 cruise missiles, probably over the western Russian region of Belgorod, a MiG-31K interceptor fired a Kinzhal hypersonic missile, probably in the same area, and a flotilla of warships launched 14 Kalibr cruise missiles in the inland Caspian Sea.

Air warfare analyst Tom Cooper wrote that the Russian goal is likely to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses across the country, with so many missiles coming from so many different directions and the focus on Kyiv.

Russian air, sea and ground forces launched an almost simultaneous combined attack using five different types of long-range missiles. Both high-speed ballistic missiles and lower-speed cruise missiles arrived in Kyiv’s airspace “practically simultaneously,” Zhdanov told 24Kanal.

Later in the day, the Ukrainian military claimed it had shot down 31 of a total of 38 Russian missiles, in line with the successes of Ukraine’s air defenses throughout the war, which typically destroy between 60 and 80 percent of attacking missiles.

According to reports from the ground and damage to buildings, some of the missiles aimed at Kyiv appeared to have made their final approach from the west or north. Ukrainian military bloggers and air defense networks reported that Kh-101 missiles were spotted over the western region of Zhytomyr before heading toward Kyiv, before turning toward the Ukrainian capital. Zhdanov said one group of missiles flew as far west as Ternopil before changing course.

The cornerstone of Kyiv’s air defense is the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system with at least three launchers and two radars, as well as an unspecified number of NASAMS shorter-range anti-aircraft missiles stationed around the capital.

According to some Ukrainian military bloggers and international observers, the Russian missiles approaching Kyiv from the north and west exploited a weakness of the Patriot radar: the system can detect virtually anything in the air at a distance of hundreds of kilometers, but the radar is stationary, has no panning and tilting motion, and covers a 60-degree arc, which presumably covers the most common attack directions.

Air defense commanders in charge of the airspace over Kyiv shot down hundreds of Russian missiles approaching the city from the south and east. But when Russian attack planners fired missiles from the north and west, Patriot radars pointed in the wrong direction, some observers said. The actual locations and dispositions of Ukraine’s air defense assets are a military secret.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat said in a statement later in the day that Russian attack tactics were becoming more sophisticated. In the latest attack, incoming missiles flew 50 meters above the ground, significantly lower than in previous attacks.

Ukrainian media and open-source images showed between six and eight major explosions throughout central western Kiev on Monday.

According to most reports, at least one and possibly two Kh-101 missiles hit buildings of the Okhmadyt Children’s Hospital. Geolocated footage from the area was shown on social media showing smoke from a hit when a Kh-101 missile, arriving almost vertically from the west, struck a two-story clinic.

Other videos showed rocket hits in the capital’s Lukyanivka district, about 1.5 kilometers away, while the Kyiv mayor’s office reported that three rockets hit electrical substations in two southern districts of the city.

Fragmentary images of attacking weapons and smoke and flames from explosions appeared to be consistent with missile attacks from the west, with some missiles apparently approaching their targets almost vertically from above.

The Kremlin denied responsibility for the attack, claiming the hospital was hit by debris from Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles. Ukrainian media and government officials said the attack on the hospital was deliberate and part of a Russian campaign to terrorize the Ukrainian population. The independent research group bellingcat.com confirmed the view that Russia attacked the hospital.

The Kyiv Post reviewed videos showing missile impacts and their locations as well as eyewitness accounts and concluded that the likelihood that the facility was hit accidentally was extremely low.

Sophisticated Russian planning, which put at least six heavy missiles into the airspace over downtown Kyiv, some of which appeared to fly normally and were unaffected by Ukrainian air defenses, bolsters the argument that the Kremlin’s weapons hit their target.