Khalil Herbert’s value is too high to consider a transfer

The idea that running back Khalil Herbert could be traded has gained popularity on social media among Bears fans who spread wild rumors and engage in conspiracy theories.

It is based on a sufficiently reputable source, but is more of an expression of opinion than a report supported by concrete sources.

It was based on a single comment by The Athletic’s Adam Jahns at the end of a section on the Bears’ running backs as part of a roster projection.

“And yet it would be no surprise if Herbert is considered to have no chance at Halas Hall,” Jahns wrote about Herbert.

He cited the reason as being that it was Herbert’s contract year and the Bears had signed De’Andre Swift as a free agent.

As is usual with such things, readers have accepted it until it has sent them running out of the wrong end zone, treating obvious speculation as accepted fact.

There are reasons to believe that Herbert will no longer be in the team at the start of the season or possibly shortly after the transfer deadline.

Herbert will be a free agent after this season, he’s definitely a good enough player to get more than a minimum contract next year, and he’ll move from the starting lineup to the backup position because they signed D’Andre Swift. All of those are arguments for him to be traded. Also, Herbert isn’t a Ryan Poles draft pick. That’s always the case.

However, there are even more reasons to believe that he will not go anywhere other than the Bears’ backfield at times.

1. Insufficient number of backs

Last year, the Bears went through their entire backfield and brought in guys off the street in Week 4 due to injuries. They finished the Washington game with Khari Blasingame as the ball carrier, but not just once or twice as a surprise or to kill time. He made eight appearances. The last Bears fullback to make at least eight appearances in a game was Curtis Enis in 2000, his final season with the team after he was promoted from running back to fullback because he lost speed and strength in his leg following knee surgery.

The Bears haven’t had their running back play in every game since John Fox’s last season as coach, when Jordan Howard did so. They’ve always had injured running backs, and most teams find that their running backs are banged up at some point during the season. Four running backs may not even be enough.

If you take Herbert off the Bears’ roster, they better have backups because they won’t get through the year with D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer as running backs alone. On the other hand, you may think that undrafted rookie Ian Wheeler from Howard University will do great things. They have him on the roster, too.

2. Would have traded it already

If they weren’t planning on keeping Herbert, it would have made more sense to trade him now than to teach him the offense and add him to the roster heading to training camp. They could have gotten a pick in the last draft if they wanted to trade him. A new third running back would be needed without him having worked on the offense in the offseason when it was used.

If they’ve waited that long, they’re better off just keeping it as an insurance policy.

3. He is too valuable

Herbert is definitely not as good a receiver as Swift, but he’s not bad at it either, and his running ability was good enough to earn him the league’s running back title for yards per run (5.7) in 2022 for backs with 100 or more runs. He didn’t become a starter last year because he was a bad player. His speed is comparable to Swift’s. In fact, at the Combine, he ran a 40 in 4.46 seconds and Swift only ran 4.48.

There is also an aspect of Herbert’s game that the Bears haven’t used in a long time that they could use this year. He has returned kicks in the past, and when special teams coordinator Richard Hightower spoke to kick returners during offseason work and the new rules that require two returns downfield, he listed Herbert among the players who are potential returners. Herbert could be a player that helps them take advantage of the new kick return rules if they use two kick returners on returns.

4. It is not cost-effective

Herbert’s value to the Bears is greater than what he would likely bring in a trade. He has missed nine games due to injury since his rookie season. A player who played 301 and 357 offensive games over the past two seasons is unlikely to bring much value in a trade.

He’s too valuable to let go because of his skill set, but he’s only costing them $1.088 million this year. They’re not going to get a better deal, and if he’s traded, the only thing they’re getting in return would be a third-day draft pick. They’d be better off keeping him and then drafting someone next year.

5. Fast

Although the Bears paid Swift $24 million over three years, there are undoubtedly some doubts about him after he failed to reach 100 yards after Week 3 last season.

If a new player doesn’t work out, it’s an advantage to have an experienced substitute in the starting lineup.

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