Nasrallah is wrong, the Lebanese do not support his war aims
In recent weeks, the drums of war have been ringing on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Although the Iranian-backed terrorist organization Hezbollah officially joined the war against Israel on October 8, there has been a worrying escalation dynamic in recent months.
According to the Alma research and education center, the number of attacks on Israel increased significantly in May and June (320 and 288 respectively, compared to 229 in April, for example), and each of these attacks may have involved numerous missiles or drones.
Several countries have warned their citizens against traveling to Lebanon, including the United States, Russia and Kuwait. Other countries, including Germany and Canada, even urged their citizens to leave the country. There have been constant threats made directly by Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, one of which was made in his speech on June 19.
The arch-terrorist’s statements brought nothing new. He threatened Israel again and declared that Hezbollah was ready for war on land, in the air and at sea. In its response, Israel stressed its readiness and commitment, according to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, “to ensure the safe return of our citizens to their homeland.”
THERE IS ONE thing that Nasrallah was keen to highlight in his speech, which reveals a less-noticed aspect of this endless saga: the Lebanese population. It is a critical factor that must be taken into account when assessing the likelihood, incentives and disincentives of a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon.
This broad group of over five million people, according to Nasrallah, supports the continuation of Hezbollah’s fight against Israel for the good of Gaza. The question is, why was it so important for him to emphasize this point?
Such a statement reveals one thing. Not that Nasrallah is necessarily describing reality as it is, but that Hezbollah, which is also a political party, is hungry for internal legitimacy. The Lebanese people are a real concern for Hezbollah and a reason for it not to fully exploit its military power, which would undoubtedly plunge Lebanon into complete disaster.
In contrast to Hezbollah’s parades and pompous statements meant to convey unity in Lebanon, the Shiite terrorist organization’s once broad support base now resembles an ordinary presidential debate: divided and full of disputes.
Lebanese people protest against war
Why? More and more Lebanese people understand the consequences of subordinating their future to Iran’s radical aspirations. While this does not mean that the Lebanese people support Israel, it does mean that they know the reality of war.
Take, for example, the words of former Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad al-Seniora in Al-Arabia on June 29: “Lebanon will not be able to bear the consequences. It is true that Hezbollah will inflict many losses on Israel if the war expands, but no one asks what will happen to Lebanon. Everyone who has anything to do with this matter must deal with these matters.” In the same interview, in response to a report that the Arab League had removed Hezbollah from a terror list (which was later denied), he said: “We must stop giving them gifts.”
Another interesting statement was made recently by Walid Jumblatt, a Lebanese Druze politician, when he took issue with Nasrallah’s threats against Cyprus if it supported Israel in the event of a war with Lebanon. Jumblatt pointed out that Cyprus served as a refuge for the Lebanese during the Cold War (and for decades afterward) and he publicly protested against Nasrallah’s threats against the EU country.
Similar criticism was openly expressed by Lebanese journalists, who condemned Nasrallah’s audacity to threaten not only Israel, but also the EU, NATO and the US – while relying solely on Iran for protection.
Such criticism, whether direct or implicit, does not come in a vacuum and represents a growing appeal to Nasrallah to avoid war with Israel, which in turn indicates not only the belief that Israel could destroy southern Lebanon, but also the low level of political support that Nasrallah currently enjoys in the country.
Some of these clashes have even penetrated the supposed “home base” of the Shiites, who know that in the eyes of Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s blood is redder than that of other Shiites like Amal. Take, for example, a comment on X by Dr. Ali Khalife, a founder of Tahrir, a Shiite opposition movement: “…the reckless and miscalculated behavior of Hezbollah, Iran’s military wing in Lebanon, undoubtedly multiplies Lebanon’s tragedy and the losses of the Lebanese.”
These examples do not necessarily mean that Hezbollah will face an internal Lebanese rebellion tomorrow morning. And of course the Lebanese people will not suddenly become pro-Israel (quite the opposite). But they are symptomatic of something deeper, and show that a significant part of the population – on a scale unprecedented today – understands the consequences of war and opposes it, despite Nasrallah’s claims that they are behind it.
When geopolitically analyzing this fragile region and its complex circumstances, deterrence must take into account not only rockets, missiles and drones, but also the internal Lebanese front and the political calculations it forces Nasrallah to make.
This is indeed the tragedy of the Middle East. As in Iran, Israel appears to be in conflict in Lebanon, not necessarily against the people, but against a bloodthirsty leadership. And the people themselves? Even if they don’t necessarily dream of eating hummus in Tel Aviv, they certainly don’t want war.
The author is former director of the Israel National Public Diplomacy Unit in the Prime Minister’s Office and author of 11 Days in Gaza (Yedioth Books, Hebrew).
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