Memo to the NATO summit: Prevent war by restoring deterrence | Opinion

At a time when the United States and its Western allies appear weak on the international stage, restoring deterrence must be NATO’s top priority.^th Anniversary Summit begins today in Washington, DC

At the recent presidential debate, more energy was spent bickering over who deserves to be president and even over the pair’s golf records. Less was spent arguing about what America and the West should do next to secure our shared democratic capitalist future against challengers like China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

There is nothing more important than the security and defense of the country. The President of the United States has the unenviable position of serving as Commander in Chief, often without the background and experience to do so, while simultaneously dealing with a multitude of other pressing political, economic, and social issues.

President Joe Biden’s continuation of Barack Obama’s “leadership from behind” approach to foreign policy has hurt both the United States and NATO. Leading from behind doesn’t win; and America hasn’t tried to win. Not in Afghanistan, not in the Middle East, and not even in Ukraine, where Biden deserves high praise for supporting a victim of Russian aggression but has failed miserably to effectively deter Moscow.

Biden’s record in the Middle East is also appallingly poor, and he is allowing Iran to wreak havoc through its proxies. The Houthis have reduced shipping in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, a key economic artery, by 50 percent. Hezbollah attacks have rendered northern Israel uninhabitable and displaced 100,000 people.

Biden’s easing of sanctions against Tehran allowed the mullahs to increase their training and support of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iraqi Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. Finally, he failed to restrain NATO ally Tayyip Recep Erdoğan, the Turkish president, who is now directly threatening Israel.

Failure to deter and contain aggression could lead to a nuclear conflict that poses a significant risk to our country. In addition to Russia and China, both of which are quite capable of engaging the United States in a devastating nuclear war, other emerging aggressor states with nuclear weapons could escalate regional conflicts. The Iranian mullahs appear hell-bent on crossing the nuclear threshold, having built up their capabilities during years of dithering over the Iran nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.

To counter this scenario, the United States and its allies must rebuild and demonstrate their strength to deter their adversaries and press for peace. Negotiations when we are barely producing tactical warheads and hypersonic missiles will not be enough. We must expand our arsenal and strengthen our military capabilities while seeking to revive the system of comprehensive strategic arms limitation treaties with willing nuclear states. We must also appeal to the peoples of China and Russia over the heads of their leaders to keep the peace.

Another significant geopolitical challenge lies in Europe. There may be an ocean between us, but oceans cannot stop missiles and drones. Ultimately, the fate of Europe will affect the future of America. A weakened and flawed U.S. leadership will only push European states away, either into the lap of the far left, the far right, or into the bear hug of Russia.

While Trump boasted in the recent presidential debate that under his leadership Putin would not have attacked Ukraine (a hypothetical assumption), he continued to express doubts about the future of NATO. He seems to hope against hope that the Europeans will be able to defend themselves at their own expense. Let us keep hoping.

While supporting Ukraine’s struggle may be unpopular in some circles, leaving this theater at Russia’s mercy would provoke further Russian aggression. “Appetite comes with eating,” as the Russian proverb goes.

Whoever becomes president in 2024 will face unprecedented threats. Trump’s fair-weather diplomacy with Kim Jong Un has failed. North Korea is now Russia’s vicious lapdog. When Trump retakes the White House, he will face a Putin far more arrogant and desperate than he met in Helsinki.

America’s influence is also waning in the developing world, and several countries are beginning to hedge their bets between the US and other powers. Most Latin American countries, for example, remained neutral in the Ukraine war. Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela are, of course, firmly pro-Putin. If this trend continues, the US risks letting its neighbours fall to our competitors. Russia, China and Iran are pushing ahead, and Beijing and Moscow are looking to expand their bases to promote an alternative world order. With Chinese intelligence expanding in Cuba, the next president will have to act.

To reverse Russian and Chinese expansion into the global South, the next administration would be well advised to launch a massive information offensive that goes beyond the current sclerotic and ineffective Cold War-style international reporting. The US should also increase funding to the International Development Finance Corporation to counter Beijing. Biden and Trump may agree on the need to compete with and constrain China. Whoever wins the election has a lot of work to do here.

We are facing the greatest challenge facing the United States since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, perhaps even since World War II. The next president must restore American deterrence in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region through strong coalitions and a massive (and costly) military buildup.

Over the next four years, it is entirely possible that the United States will face a war larger than Vietnam or Korea. That will require inspired leadership. The next president will need the support and help of U.S. policymakers, the American people, and our allies to carry the burden of Western democracy, maintain and strengthen deterrence, and avoid a major global conflict.

Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of “Russian imperialism: development and crisis” (Praeger Greenwood).

The views expressed in this article are those of the author.