Giants-Blue Jays series preview: Blake Snell returns as Giants try to get back to .500

Over the past two seasons, the Toronto Blue Jays have accomplished what the San Francisco Giants are trying to accomplish this season and beyond: a quick playoff exit thanks to the expanded Wild Card field. After reaching that peak, however, they’ve hit the other side of the mountain, and it’s no fun.

This season has been a mess for Canada’s only team, but it looks like management has decided to ignore calls for major changes and hold on to players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette because, hey, they’re only 8.5 games out of a wild card spot. The disappointing and frustrating season itself follows an offseason that could be described similarly.

They were The Team as leverage (? For fun?) in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Their big signings ended up being pitcher Yariel Rodríguez (albeit with a 3.68 ERA in 7 starts!), Justin Turner (gross), Kevin Kiermaier (who re-signed his own guy) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who surprisingly is hitting much better than the league average). They let go of Brandon Belt as well as Matt Chapman and Jordan Hicks.

The Giants have signed these last two players and have become better as a result, and lately you could say much better. While the Giants have only had 5 winning months since the end of the 2021 season (and only 10 winning months total since 2017 outside of 2021), they are 15-15 in their last 30 games and 8-5 since a disastrous 1-5 road trip in the Midwest. The thing is, they are only 8-13 in interleague games. Toronto is 10-10 and not bad on the road (20-25); the Jays, however, are 13-17 in their last 30 games – but they have a lot of games against teams with a .500 or better record — such is the nature of the AL East. They have a 26-39 record against teams with a .500 or better record (the Giants have a 15-26 record). They have a 16-13 record against teams with a sub-.500 record.

I remember very well that the 2000 team underperformed to a notable degree, but nobody gave up hope in the first half and the mantra became “just get to .500 by the All-Star break.” That’s not really something teams need to have in mind today — we’ll definitely see a 77- or 78-win team become a Wild Card team sooner than we think — but fans should probably want that. Cheering a few guys in a front office against 26 players under .500 is, uh, certainly a lifestyle choice, but one I don’t endorse. Of course, with so many Wild Card spots available, the Giants don’t have need They’ll be at .500 by the break, but we’d feel a little better if that’s the case; and the return of Blake Snell offers the possibility that they might get there.

Blake Snell has been a bad player all season — or rather, all season for us, but it’s still Spring Training for him. It’s already a lost season, so I don’t think it’s worth thinking much about his performance, and he should be considered a blank when you see him on the list of likely pitchers. Sure, the Giants expect him to be a significant contributor, but nothing he’s done this season suggests he will, so why bother? He’s been just as disappointing as the Blue Jays. It should be an entertaining matchup of disappointments tonight.

Series details

WHO: Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California
When: Tuesday (6:45 p.m. PT), Wednesday (6:45 p.m. PT), Thursday (12:45 p.m. PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Friday)

Expected starters
Tuesday: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Blake Snell
Wednesday: Chris Bassitt vs. All-Star Logan Webb
Thursday: Kevin Gausman vs. Jordan Hicks

Where they stand

Blue Jays, 41-49 (5th in ALE, -8.5 WC), 359 RS / 419 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5
Giants, 44-47 (4th in NLW, -3.5 WC), 402 RS / 429 RA | Last 10 games: 7-3

Blue Jays in focus

Kevin Gausman: He’s 2.5 years into his 5-year deal with the Jays and has a record of 30-27 in 80 starts with a 3.55 ERA (2.93 FIP). That’s an ERA+ of 115. He was much better in his brief 2-year stay with the Giants, of course (139 ERA+ in 45 games), and he’s only a “what if?” in that we saw the alternate route the Giants took: Carlos Rodon, “maybe Alex Cobb can be the No. 2 guy,” trading for Robbie Ray and signing Blake Snell. They will have spent more in 5 seasons to replace Gausman than if they had simply extended Gausman, but I agree that it’s Is Time to put this whole thing behind us—not because Gausman is bad now (although he has a 4.64 ERA this season, and 5.27 in his last seven starts), but because it happened so long ago that it hardly matters anymore.

If Ray and Snell can get back to form this year or next year, that won’t really overturn the decision made after 2021. Anyway, as bad as Gausman has been this year, he struck out 10 in a shutout against the A’s on June 8 and 10 in 6 innings against the Mariners in Seattle in his last start. I’d say the Giants’ lineup is better than those two teams and Gausman has struggled against good lineups this season. The Jays have struggled against good teams this season. Hmm. Maybe the Giants’ performance in this series will determine if they’re good or bad?

Bo Bichette: Sometimes baseball players just have a bad season, or they go from good to bad. Bichette’s seasons from age 21 to 25: .299/.340/.487 (.827 OPS in 2,328 PA). Bichette’s season at age 26 (2024): .226/.280/.327 (.606 OPS in 322 PA). He only got worse as the weather warmed, posting a line of .180/.245/.258 (.503 OPS) since June 1 (23 games, 98 PA). He has from a below-average defender to an average defender. This is the point in a player’s career where he should take off.

Justin Turner: I can’t believe he’s still playing. I’ve always preferred Turner over Muncy in the competition for most hated Dodger, and that dislike hasn’t gone away just because he moved to a different shade of blue. His .367 slugging percentage is the lowest of his career since his first full season in 2011 (at age 26), but the 39-year-old is still a good defender at first and third base, hitting .245/.353/.367 in 75 games (289 PA). He’s hitting .282/.359/.415 in 275 PA at Oracle Park. He’s basically their DH, and I’d just like him to not get any hits in this series.

Giants to watch

Thairo Estrada: His 10-day IL stint is over and so it’s likely he’ll return for this series. I put this spot in the series preview on that prediction. The Giants need his defense a little more than his bat because if he’s at second base, Brett Wisely will likely be pushed to the shortstop position rather than the bench, making Nick Ahmed a backup where he belongs. Ahmed’s utility would have been just plus defense and an 85 or so wRC+. His defense is approaching plus (it’s definitely above average), but the bat is unbeatable (69 wRC+). Estrada isn’t much better this season (82 wRC+), but his defense Is Plus, he’s basically Nick Ahmed at his best, except he plays second base. The Giants are 38-39 when he plays.

LaMonte Wade Jr.: He’s struck out just 5 of 25 since returning from the IL and was 0 of 8 in the Cleveland series, likely a major reason for the Giants’ loss. Just to be clear, he was the seventh-best hitter in baseball before going on the IL, and while the first two months of a season don’t necessarily shape a player or team for the rest of the season, in this case I really, really wish they did. Hopefully a return to Oracle Park can help him get comfortable and become a key force in the lineup again.

The All-Star Heliot Ramos: This is a long preview, but let’s take a moment to enjoy Ramos’ performance. He’ll get a chance to play in front of the fans after being named to the All-Star squad, and I just hope that means lots of applause and lots of big hits. The dam is about to break. The Giants were hoping to sign a hero, but found a heliot among them.

Luke Jackson: Look, he’s probably not going to get released. The Giants owe him $2 million in offseason severance pay – unless they can trade him! They could trade Mark Melancon. He’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and I’m sure they’re thinking/hoping they can trade him if they get him back on his feet in the next week or so. It’s unlikely, but not implausible, and there won’t be a roster crunch in the next few weeks. In the next 3-4 weeks? Absolutely. Either way, he could pitch in this series, and that might not be entertaining to watch, but if he did, the team would be pretty well positioned for the deadline.

Forecast time