South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s participation in NATO’s 75th anniversary celebrations this week comes at a time when the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin last month reinforced the direct link between the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions on the Korean peninsula. North Korea’s Supply of ammunition to Russia has helped prolong the conflict in Ukraine, while a newly signed agreement between North Korea and Russia mutual defence agreement increases the likelihood that Russia will provide sophisticated technology for North Korea’s nuclear and missile development in return for North Korea’s growing munitions supplies.
The restoration of strategic relations between North Korea and Russia after decades of inactivity will encourage Kim to turn to stronger provocations against South Korea and link inter-Korean relations directly to the Ukrainian battlefield. South Korea’s national security adviser has suggested that South Korea’s direct military support to Ukraine will be contingent on Russia’s increasing technological support to North Korea. This statement contains implicit calls for Putin to exercise restraint in supplying North Korea with advanced technologies, but does not adequately address the direct impact of a revival of North Korea-Russia relations on South Korea’s security.
The growing North Korea-Russia relationship represents a dramatic expansion of the security risks South Korea is likely to face from North Korea’s unchecked pursuit of improving its military capabilities. The revival of North Korea-Russia relations has not only further crippled the UN Security Council’s ability to implement a dozen resolutions condemning North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, but will also likely accelerate North Korea’s ability to field a space satellite system and its efforts to develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile system, both of which would undermine the advantages the U.S.-South Korea alliance currently enjoys.
North Korea’s acquisition of advanced Russian technologies would dramatically increase North Korea’s scope and capacity as a threat to the security of the peninsula and the world. Indeed, the planned expansion of the mutual defense commitment between North Korea and Russia, as envisaged in the treaty, represents a dramatic escalation of security risks for South Korea and also serves to directly link instability on the peninsula to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Therefore, the Yoon administration must make the early dismantling of strategic ties between North Korea and Russia a strategic priority for South Korea. These circumstances give Yoon’s participation in this week’s NATO meetings in Washington DC additional significance, as South Korea is even more involved than before in the duration and outcome of the war in Ukraine.
The immediate challenge facing Yoon is that Putin has already threatened to take action beyond the level of support for North Korea that South Korea has announced as direct military support for Ukraine. Yoon may want to assure Ukraine of direct support for Surface-to-air missile systems that improve Ukraine’s defenses against Russian bombings. This move could be particularly important as it signals to Putin that South Korea will not stand idly by while he revives relations with Pyongyang. South Korea should also prioritize any form of military assistance beyond defense systems that could contribute to an early end to the military conflict.
South Korea should also use the NATO summit to actively conduct diplomatic talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine, especially since there is talk of a Korean ceasefire agreement. some analysts as the likely outcome of the military conflict. The purpose of such diplomacy for South Korea would be to create greater political urgency around the goal of ending the military dimension of the war. Although South Korea is unlikely to play a decisive mediator or broker role in achieving such an outcome, South Korea’s interest in reducing the volume and duration of North Korean arms sales to Russia is a strong incentive for Seoul to pursue more active diplomacy aimed at ending the conflict.
Yoon should use the NATO summit to underscore South Korea’s determination to respond and show that it will not be intimidated by Russia’s emergence as North Korea’s protector, while simultaneously restricting the supply of North Korean weapons to Ukraine. This goal can be achieved through diplomacy aimed at suppressing Russia’s demand for such weapons by supporting an early end to military hostilities. Yoon’s efforts should mark the beginning of an increased role by South Korea to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an early and favorable end, both at the NATO summit and through increased Diplomatic coordination between the US, Japan and South Korea.
