The remnants of Hurricane Beryl are racing toward parts of Michigan. What this means for us

The track of remnant storm Beryl should reach parts of Michigan with heavy rain. Here’s what we can expect in the Great Lakes state.

First, you should know that we will not face a major safety threat as Beryl barrels toward parts of Michigan. These remnant storms bring gusts of up to 30 mph and heavy, gusty rain, but not the winds of a tropical storm. Also, severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes typical of a remnant storm in the South do not typically occur when the storm center reaches Michigan.

We can expect steady, penetrating rain for 12 hours in an area.

All of the various models bring the rain cover from the former hurricane to at least the southeastern half of Lower Michigan. The rain should spread from the south and begin to hit the southern Michigan border during the latter part of Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. The more or less heavy rain will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday. The rain should leave Michigan on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Here’s the rain area forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. This uses the model, which is usually most accurate a few days in advance, but the storm center can often be 100 miles too far northwest.

The exact track of the storm center will determine how much of Lower Michigan is covered in the persistent rains from Beryl’s remnants. The National Hurricane Center’s afternoon rain track update shows a broad swath of “patches of 2 to 4 inches” of rain for southern and southeastern Michigan. I don’t think it will be a widespread swath of 2 to 4 inches. The heaviest swath will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with a few spots over 2 inches. The rain will taper off quickly as we move north and west of the heavier rain. By the time we get north of Clare, there probably won’t be much rain at all.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still predicting 2 to 4 inches of rain to southern and southeastern Lower Michigan in its rain forecast. The dark green area is in the NHC’s 2 to 4 inches of rain. This would include Kalamazoo, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor, and the Detroit area. They state the 1 inch of rain could reach as far north as the Grand Rapids area, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw.

This would not be a dangerous rain, and there should be no damaging wind gusts. For many of us in southern Michigan, it should be a heavy, drenching rain.

Is that the actual direction that’s occurring? I’ll say two things about that question. The current trend on each data run, every six hours, is for the storm to move a little farther north and west than the previous run. In other words, southern Michigan would get more rain and the northern extent of the rain could extend into central lower Michigan. On the other hand, there has been a tendency over the years for these storms to move farther east and south than the forecast a few days later. Of course, our models are constantly being adjusted and improved, so the tendency to move too far north and west has decreased in recent years.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the rain cover only extends as far north as Lansing, Flint, Ann Arbor, and the Detroit area to the north and west. It’s almost like tracking a snowstorm in the summer. Here are quick updates on the track and the expected rain area.