Series preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

After a 3-4 road trip, the Brewers have six more home games to play before the All-Star break begins. They lost 2 ¹⁄₂ games in the standings to the Cardinals and hope to rebuild before the break. To start the home series, they will play three home games against the Pirates. The Pirates are 9 ¹⁄₂ Games back in the NL Central standings, but only four games back in the Wild Card standings.

This will be the Brewers’ third series against the Pirates this season. So far this season, the Brewers are 4-3 against the Pirates. They split a series 2-2 in Pittsburgh in April and then won a series 2-1 at home in May. The last series between these two teams will be in late September in the second-to-last series of the season.

Offensively, Bryan Reynolds has led the offense this season. He has really stepped up his game in the last month. Over the last 30 days, he has a batting line of .333/.386/.648 with 8 HR, 20 RBI, and a wRC+ of 187. Rowdy Tellez has also really improved over the last 30 days. During that time, he has a batting line of .342/.385/.644 with 6 HR, 16 RBI, and a wRC+ of 186. However, as a team, they have struggled on offense. They are 26th in MLB this season with a wRC+ of 87.

Injuries have decimated the Pirates’ pitching staff. There are currently ten pitchers on the injured list, including four different starting pitchers. The most recent additions were Bailey Falter and Jared Jones, forcing the Pirates to further reduce their pitching depth. They are also missing David Bednar (5.17 ERA, 16 SV), who has been taking over closing duties for the Pirates. Aroldis Chapman (4.13 ERA, 3 SV) has since taken over that role. Carmen Mlodzinski (3.42 ERA), Kyle Nicholas (4.00 ERA) and Colin Holderman (1.93 ERA) have also played important roles in the bullpen in recent weeks.

Probable pitchers

Tuesday, July 9, 7:10 p.m.: TBD against Colin Rea (3.34 ERA, 4.61 FIP)

The Pirates have not yet announced their starter for Tuesday. That would have been Jared Jones’ spot in the rotation, but he was placed on the injured list with a right lat strain. They could activate Quinn Priester from the IL. He has made two rehab starts with Indianapolis and his last start was July 2. Priester has made one start this season against the Brewers, allowing four runs in six innings on May 14. Other options are scarce, with only Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows on the 40-man roster.

Colin Rea continued his strong season with a bright start in his last appearance. In Colorado, he pitched seven scoreless innings with four strikeouts. He gave up six hits in the start. He has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts.

Wednesday, July 10, 7:10 p.m.: Martín Pérez (4.72 ERA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Tobias Myers (3.52 ERA, 4.44 FIP)

Martín Pérez will face the Brewers for the second time this season. The last time the Brewers faced him, they had a great night, scoring nine runs against him in five innings. Perez has also spent a month on the IL since their last meeting. In his last start against the Cardinals, he allowed just one unearned run in 7 ¹⁄₃ innings.

After a strong June, Tobias Myers has had some rough starts in his last two appearances. In his last two appearances, he allowed three runs to the Cubs and four runs to the Rockies. Myers has been up and down in many of his appearances. He has seven starts where he allowed zero or one run, but also four starts where he allowed four or more runs.

Thursday, July 11, 1:10 p.m.: Paul Skenes (2.12 ERA, 2.78 FIP) vs. Aaron Civale (5.18 ERA, 4.96 FIP)

The Brewers have missed Paul Skenes so far this season, but will face him for the first time in the final game of the series. Skenes has lived up to expectations so far, posting a 2.12 ERA and 11.8 K/9 in his first 10 major league games. He has not allowed more than three runs in a game this season and has at least seven strikeouts in nine of his 10 games, earning him an All-Star selection in his rookie season. In addition, the Pirates have averaged 6.93 runs in his games, including four games with double-digit runs.

Aaron Civale made his first start for the Brewers on July 5 against the Dodgers. In that start, he allowed four runs in five innings. While he managed eight strikeouts in the start, he also allowed three walks and three home runs. Home runs were a problem for Civale, who allowed at least one home run in 15 of his 18 starts. However, the strikeout rate was good at 9.0 K/9.

forecast

This will be a tough series, as Paul Skenes will be pitching for the Pirates. However, there are holes that can be exploited. The other two games are potentially better matchups for the Brewers, and Skenes is not unbeatable. I’m still predicting two out of three wins for the Brewers.