Series preview: Guardians at Tigers

If the Tigers want to save their season, they’ll likely have to beat the Guardians in this four-game series just before the All-Star break. If the Guardians want to fend off the stubborn Twins while Minnesota faces the White Sox, they’ll have to distance themselves from the Motor City Kitties or win another series.

Detroit enters the series 42-48 with a run differential of -19, is 25th in MLB with a team wRC+ of 90, 9th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 3.4, 13th in Defensive War at -5.9, 1st in Starting Pitcher FIP at 3.47 (which has suffered a setback of late with Jack Flaherty being on the IL but is scheduled to return Thursday) and 17th in Relief Pitcher FIP at 3.99.

Cleveland enters the series 56-42 with a run differential of +97, is ninth in MLB with a team wRC+ of 109, 25th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -5.2, sixth in Defensive WAR at 4.4, 29th in Starting Pitcher FIP at 4.65 and second in Relief Pitcher FIP at 3.13.

Pairings:

Game 1: Gavin Williams, RHP (3.67 FIP) vs. Keider Montero, RHP (6.02 FIP), Monday, 6:40 p.m.

analysis: Gavin Williams didn’t throw a single slider in his first appearance of the season, a pitch that was by far his best throw of 2023. Was that because he didn’t have a feel for the pitch before the game? Did it have to do with the health of his elbow? We’ll find out in the following starts starting tonight. It would be incredibly encouraging for the Guardians if Williams gets a few decent starts in before the break. In the meantime, they’ll try to find a solid rookie pitcher for the Tigers in Montero, whose bugaboo in two starts so far has been the home run ball. Can the Guardians get a ball or two out of the cavernous Comerica here? That’ll be something to watch.

Game two: Ben Lively, RHP (4.22 FIP) vs. Kenta Maeda, RHP (5.42 FIP), Tuesday, 6:40 p.m.

analysis: Lively was such a key part of the Guardians’ success in the first half. Let’s see if he can finish strong with this start and another against the Rays before the break. Maeda, meanwhile, has struggled this year, so let’s hope the Guardians’ top hitters, Angel Martinez 222 wRC+, Steven Kwan 174 wRC+, Jhonkensy Noel 167 wRC+, David Fry 160 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 143 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 137 wRC+, Josh Naylor 125 wRC+ and (hopefully back) Will Brennan 107 wRC+, can tee off and get their numbers up nicely before the break as well.

Game three: Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.27 FIP) vs. Reese Olson, RHP (2.96 FIP) Wednesday, 6:40 p.m.

analysis: This looks to be the best pitching matchup of the series, and the Guardians will look to get Olson out of the game as early as possible and get to the Tigers bullpen, which may be a bit overwhelmed at this point if games one and two go in the Guardians’ favor offensively. Bibee will look to contain the Tigers’ best hitters, including Riley Greene 139 wRC+, Buddy Kennedy 116 wRC+, and Carson Kelly 107 wRC+.

Game four: TBD (probably Spencer Howard, RHP, 3.88 FIP) vs. Jack Flaherty, RHP (3.06 FIP), Thursday, 1:10 p.m.

analysis: It’s probably time for the Spencer Howard reveal, folks. Let’s see what the Guardians thought was better than Logan Allen. We’ll also get a chance to see Flaherty back from a back issue, as the Tigers are likely looking to trade him later this month. Loaning Flaherty was high on my wish list, but I’m also OK with the Guardians gambling him in this start and lowering his potential value.