What is the fantasy value of Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith in 2024?

Fantasy football season is upon us, and the Seattle Seahawks have several position groups with players that are expected to be relatively high on draft boards.

These point totals and projections are compiled based on a points-per-reception (PPR) scoring format. If you’re in a league that uses a standard, half-PPR, or other format, point totals may vary. Point totals and projections for 2024 are provided courtesy of Sleeper.com.

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith regressed in raw production and fantasy output last season. Will he be more relevant to fantasy in 2024?

Previous two seasons and predictions for 2024

2022: 399/572, 4,282 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs; 68 att, 366 yards, TD, 8 fumble – 313.88 points (QB5)

2023: 323/499, 3,624 yards, 20 TDs, 9 INTs; 37 Att, 155 Yards, TD, 5 Fumble – 236.26 Points (QB19)

2024 (predicted by Sleeper): 3,773 yards, 24 TDs, 11 INTs; 147 yards, TD – 239.62 (QB24)

Projected Average Draft Position (ADP) for Sleeper: 101

Notes on the 2023 season

Season high score: 29.96 (23 of 41 passes, 334 yards, 3 TDs, INT; 2 rushes, 6 yards, TD; Week 13 against Dallas)

Season lows: 2.68 (13 of 28 passes, 157 yards, INT; 2 rushes, 4 yards; Week 9 against Baltimore)

Averages: 21.5 completions, 33.3 attempts, 251.5 yards, 1.3 TDs, 0.6 INTs; 2.5 rushes, 10.3 yards, 0.06 TDs

outlook

After finishing 2022 as QB5, Smith was far less effective from a fantasy perspective in 2023, finishing the season as QB19. However, he missed two games, which further hurt his overall performance. Adjusting Smith’s stats to a 17-game season puts him much closer to where he was in 2022 — but still below that.

Adjusted statistics 2023 (17 games): 366/566, 4,131 yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs; 42 Att, 176 Yards, TD; 6 Fumble – 258.84 points (QB15)

Ironically, that adjustment would have placed Smith just behind his new teammate Sam Howell (278.54 points) and former teammate Russell Wilson (264.9 points). He would have been just a few points ahead of Matthew Stafford (254.1 points), who also missed two games last season. Smith’s passing yardage would have been on par with his 2022 numbers, but his yardage and passing touchdowns would still have been too low.

According to Sleeper, Smith will finish well below QB15 in 2024 while barely scoring more points than he did in just 15 games. This is the opposite of the direction Smith should be heading, especially as he enters new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s quarterback-friendly scheme. His value should rise, not fall, as Smith could be the perfect NFL quarterback to run the offense that utilizes plenty of vertical routes while giving him easy opportunities to avoid incomplete passes and turnovers. With the talented pass receivers around him who also have the ideal skills to make the most of the scheme, it’s impossible for Smith to finish as QB24 in 2024.

Smith may not reach his previous QB5 highs again, but he should land somewhere in the top 10 unless the offensive line implodes and fails to protect him. If he has time to go through his reads regularly, Smith will shine on offense and could record over 30 passing touchdowns and 4,200 passing yards. This would obviously be the best season of Smith’s career, which is entirely possible.

Therefore, Smith should be considered a set-and-forget starter in all fantasy leagues until proven otherwise. He will be especially valuable in dual-quarterback leagues if he is stacked with another top-10 player – a situation that could arise from other members of your league undervaluing him. Don’t expect to put up rushing numbers as high as other dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, but around 150 rushing yards is likely. Smith could really light up defenses with his arm this season, and when that happens, you’ll want him on your roster.