Israel won the war militarily, but the strategy remains a challenge
Millions of words, hundreds of thousands of articles and analyses have been written in the last nine months about the failure of October 7, 50 years after the failure of the Yom Kippur War.
It is painful to say that the failure of October 7, 2023 surpassed the severity of the failure of October 1973. Israel lost the battle on the morning of October 7 at 06:28.
For nine months now, we have been trying to recover from this blow and win the war. That is a harsh statement, but it is important to face reality.
Even in the Yom Kippur War, we lost the battle, but we won the war. We don’t want to make comparisons or analogies here.
A war-torn people, a state and an army facing a sudden war against powerful armies in the region were expected to be alert, keen, attentive and resilient, even in the face of the looming threat of secondary terrorist organisations.
How did a situation arise in which a “deterred” terrorist organization managed to defeat a strong, large and technologically advanced army, whose intelligence system is among the ten best armies in the world, even if only for a few hours?
Deficiencies at the tactical level
At the tactical level, the war investigations conducted by the Israeli army and the Shin Bet and recently presented to the Chief of General Staff point to deficiencies.
But the really necessary investigation in the form of a state commission of inquiry is not taking place. It is questionable whether such an investigation will even be carried out in this government composition.
Israel was involved in a strategic game involving Hamas. Both the political and military leadership acted blindly. The defense concept in the south was flawed. Politicization entered the Israeli armed forces and the security apparatus, influencing their decision-making and security measures.
The Israeli forces were perceived as complacent, unprepared, inattentive and incapable of fighting.
Those who saved the country were the civilians who rushed to the defense without orders from the reserve soldiers. The leadership of the battle was neither under control nor organized, which contributed to the horrifying number of casualties.
The Israeli forces have fought in Gaza for nine months. The fighting spirit of the soldiers of the regular and reserve forces is an example for us and for all nations.
The Israeli forces stopped the enemy from entering Israeli territory and destroyed all of Hamas’ infrastructure in the Gaza Strip – from Jabalya in the north, through the central camps and the city of Khan Yunis, to Rafah and the Philadelphia axis.
The Israeli Defense Forces have cut off Hamas from the world. What the Israeli Defense Forces have achieved in the fighting is studied in military academies around the world. On a tactical level, the Israeli Defense Forces have won the war.
But the conduct of the campaign remains an unsolved mystery. Nine months is a long time for such a war, and it contradicts Israel’s security doctrine. The war is exhausting the country, the reserve forces, the economy, and every day it claims to be victorious.
Israel has embarked on this determined campaign to win and restore its strength and dignity. In reality, hesitation and a lack of strategic unity have led us into a protracted war.
This week, some optimism spread, possibly influenced by events in the US election campaign in particular.
We have a chance to win the war, reach an agreement to release 120 prisoners, and establish a long-term security arrangement and a system of government to replace Hamas. The only question is how determined the Israeli leadership is to make this happen.
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