Ukraine war: Mood ahead of NATO summit in the USA “gloomy” in view of Russian military gains

The star of the summit, however, is likely to be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is looking for clear signs of support even though NATO will not extend an invitation to his country to join.

Founded in 1949 for collective defense against the Soviet Union, NATO returned in some ways to its original mission when its allies came to the aid of Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2022.

The Ukrainians have emboldened much of the West by beating back Russia’s drive for a quick victory, but Moscow’s forces are pressing on and making progress in the east.

A European politician admitted that the mood ahead of the NATO summit had become “gloomy” in view of the unstable front line in Ukraine.

“This summit will be very different from the original plans because it comes at a critical time for European security,” said the official, who wished to remain anonymous.

“Russia is in a pretty comfortable situation today. They think they can just wait and see,” he said.

Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the summit was taking place “at the best and worst time.”

“The best of times, in the sense that the alliance knows what it is about – deterring Russia. The alliance members are spending more,” he said.

“But these are also the worst of times – obviously because of the war in Ukraine, the challenges of increasing European defense spending and concerns about the reliability of the United States.”

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Two years after the war in Ukraine: diseases, displacement and cries for help

Two years after the war in Ukraine: diseases, displacement and cries for help

Trump, who has expressed admiration for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in the past, has long criticized NATO as an unfair burden on the United States, which spends far more money than any other ally.

The 2024 Republican presidential candidate – whose first term was marked by impeachment proceedings over his pressure on Zelensky – insists he can end the war, and his advisers are considering the possibility of making future US aid contingent on Ukraine entering into negotiations to hand over territory.

Trump has a narrow lead over Biden in recent polls. Meanwhile, France – where President Emmanuel Macron is considering sending troops to Ukraine – is also facing political change as the far right, historically close to Russia, made strong gains in parliamentary elections.

These setbacks came after Putin recently hosted Viktor Orban, the pro-Russian prime minister of Hungary, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council.

The NATO summit is also likely to be the diplomatic debut of a new head of state: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the overwhelming election victory of his Labour Party.

Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has led efforts to entrust the alliance itself, rather than the United States, with coordinating military aid to Ukraine.

Stoltenberg is also calling on allies to provide Ukraine with at least 40 billion euros ($43 billion) in military aid annually to ensure reliable and continuous support as Kyiv prepares for a long war against Russia.

Diplomats call such measures a “Trump-proof” solution for the alliance. But few believe that NATO or support for Ukraine could survive in the same way without the United States, which under Biden has approved $175 billion in military and other aid to Kyiv.

The summit also comes shortly after two more countries joined NATO – Finland and Sweden. Both countries have overcome their initial reluctance to formally join the alliance after witnessing the invasion of Ukraine, which had unsuccessfully applied for membership.

Diplomats said the US was keen to organise a smooth meeting without drama and to avoid the kind of recriminations that took place at last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania, where Zelensky failed to secure firmer commitments to Ukraine’s accession to the alliance.

Ukrainian politicians acknowledge there is no chance of a change of heart in Washington. Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have led the opposition to Ukrainian membership, believing that admitting a country already at war would be tantamount to NATO confronting nuclear power Russia.

Instead, Biden has signed a ten-year security agreement with Ukraine. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. would soon announce new military aid worth $2.3 billion.