Arsenal could sign Jack Grealish for £60m as Man City weigh up transfer value

Man City star Jack Grealish is set for a big summer after losing his place in City’s starting line-up during a disappointing 2023/24 season, which ultimately resulted in him being left out of England’s EURO 2024 squad.

City’s record signing had bounced back from his slow first season in the north-west after joining his club from Aston Villa for £100 million in 2021, and had an excellent 2022/23 campaign that ended with Pep Guardiola’s side winning the treble.

But the 28-year-old largely fell out of favour last season and with Brazilian sensation Savio likely to sign this summer, Grealish faces an uphill battle to save his career at City.

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Grealish is keen and City are in no rush to sell him this summer, but if he fails to regain his form this season, the prospect of recouping much of the £100m they paid for him looks bleak.

The England international turns 29 next summer and if he has just had two poor seasons, City may have missed the chance to make money off him.

Arsenal have been linked with a move for Grealish and are known to be on the hunt for a new winger this summer. A move for a proven Premier League talent could well be on the cards. The Gunners fear the move would cost a lot of money as Grealish’s current contract at the Etihad Stadium still has three years left to run.

However, as Dave Powell, writer of the Business of Football column at Reach Sport, explained, there is an option for Arsenal to sign Grealish for £60 million, which would benefit all three parties.

“Arsenal’s success on the pitch over the last two seasons will help them reduce losses in the 2022/23 financial year, although they are likely to still be in the red, which is common across the Premier League,” he said.

“The Gunners have some flexibility in their PSR, considerable flexibility. While they have to take into account higher amortised costs, they have offset this through the extension of player contracts and effective player trading.

“It is possible that they have a PSR buffer of around £90 million but given the new regulation coming into force in 2025 which is similar to UEFA’s squad cost rule, they will, like most clubs, be keeping a closer eye on wage and depreciation costs to stay under the 70 per cent limit that will apply to UEFA from the start of the 2025/26 season, which is 85 per cent in the Premier League.”

“Arsenal are in a position to strengthen and a deal for Grealish is certainly within the scope of what they can do in terms of financial controls.”

He continued: “Grealish’s transfer market value is €60 million (£51 million), according to Transfermarkt, having reached his peak of €100 million (£84.6 million) when Manchester City paid £100 million for his services from Aston Villa in 2021. With three years left on his contract, City still have significant room to maneuver in terms of market value, although a poor season compared to previous conditions and not being called up to the England squad for Euro 2024 are likely to have had a significant impact on that.

“Still, City would likely demand more than the £51m they paid in 2021. Back then, they were allowed to write off the amount over the term of his six-year contract. Since then, Premier League clubs have been limited to five years on which to write off a transfer fee.

“Grealish’s amortised cost was around £16.7m per year, with three of those years now gone, meaning his remaining book value would be just under £50m. That means City would have to sell him for more than that sum to make a profit on the player, meaning a sum of £60m seems the more likely transfer fee City will demand, possibly even higher.

“For Arsenal, such a sum means they will have to raise £12m per year in amortised costs over five years. For City, selling Grealish would not have a significant impact as they already have significant headroom due to their revenue.

“But with wages rising and a looming Premier League salary cap, some club managers may be thinking about cutting wage bills. Additionally, City will be aware that when they next try to sell Grealish next summer, he will be close to his 30th birthday and will have two years left on his contract, which could well halve his value.”