US-brokered Hamas deal resets war gains to zero, with international guarantees for Israeli forces’ withdrawal | The Jewish Press – JewishPress.com | David Israel | 1 Tammuz 5784 – Sunday, July 7, 2024

Photo credit: Jamal Awad/Flash90

A series of developments, secret and public, in recent weeks and even more heated in recent days have created the impression that negotiations on an agreement with Hamas are making progress. In reality, it is more American optimism – no, let’s say wishful thinking – that a window has opened for an agreement to release the hostages, dead and alive.

On Wednesday, Hamas presented a counter-proposal to the ongoing negotiations. According to statements made by two senior US officials to the New York Times, Hamas is seeking international guarantees to ensure that both parties continue negotiations after an initial ceasefire begins until they reach a final agreement to end the conflict and release all remaining hostages in Gaza.

In other words, Hamas’s main concern is to avoid a scenario in which it releases a large number of hostages and Israel then resumes its military operations.

This would be a good opportunity to point out that this is a ruthless terrorist organization demanding international guarantees, and worse, those guarantees would be granted if Israel gave in to pressure from the Biden administration (no withdrawal – no weapons and ammunition, the familiar threat).

American optimism was translated and broadcast to the Israeli public on a massive scale, predictably rekindling expectations that soon, if Prime Minister Netanyahu and the “right-wing extremists” in his cabinet would just comply with Hamas’ demands, happy hostages would pour out of the terrorists’ tunnels, dead and alive. But the reality has not changed, and despite the new flexibility and concessions on the part of Hamas, which followed considerable flexibility on the part of Israel, the terrorists are skillfully using words to lure Israel into a suicidal maneuver.

Stripping away the linguistic baggage in Arabic and English, it becomes clear that Hamas continues to insist on exactly the same point it has been insisting on since the last ceasefire collapsed on November 29 last year: namely, the release of all hostages only in exchange for a permanent ceasefire, the end of the state of war, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and international guarantees that when Yahya Sinwar finally pops his head out of his burrow, he will not see a shadow followed by drone fire.

Vedant Patel, the State Department’s deputy spokesman, summed it up at a July 2 press conference: “We have seen time and time again that Hamas has changed the rules of the game. It has changed the parameters. It has kept making different demands, even though it had previously approved different versions of this proposal. We must remember that this proposal has been accepted by Israel, by the United Nations, by the partners in the Arab world, and that, of course, as I said, the United States has also pushed it. So if there is an interest in ending this conflict, if there is an interest in providing some kind of relief to the Palestinian people, the solution is very simple: Hamas can stop haggling and accept the ceasefire proposal that is on the table.”

Hamas wants the agreement to begin with guarantees that the temporary ceasefire of the first of three phases will lead to a ceasefire during the second phase and eventually culminate in a permanent ceasefire. Israel, on the other hand, insists on the exact opposite point: it wants to retain the ability to return and fight after the first ceasefire, or at the latest when negotiations for the second phase fail.

At the meeting between Mossad chief David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani on Friday, Barnea announced that there was nothing to discuss and that Israel would not deviate from its position, which was adopted both by President Biden and as part of the Security Council resolution. Now the world is waiting for a response from Hamas, but there is no new information, only an optimistic forecast. Hamas has expressed its reservations about Israel’s proposal, and now – unless Israel increases its attacks on Rafah and Khan Younes until hundreds, perhaps thousands more bodies of Hamas fighters lie in the streets – there is no reason for Hamas to confirm an agreement and no way to stop it from changing its mind a few days later.

Yet there is a sense of momentum in the air – real or artificial – that a resumption of contacts is expected, and this momentum alone is generating momentum that could lead to further initiatives and greater international pressure on the parties. For example, the Israeli security elite is secretly conveying to the media its view that it is time to end the war and leave Gaza before more good young Israelis are lost. At the same time, the lower ranks of the security apparatus are still hellbent on continuing the war until Gaza is cleansed of its 20,000 to 30,000 very bad men.

CIA Director William Burns will visit Doha next week to discuss a possible ceasefire in Gaza with intelligence chiefs from Israel, Europe and other countries. Burns is also expected to travel to Israel to encourage the Israeli government to agree to a deal.

US officials continue to stress that recent changes to the agreement, which set out concrete conditions for the transition between phases, could be enough to initiate the release of the hostages after months of hostage-taking.

Of the approximately 250 people kidnapped on October 7, 2023, about 120 hostages remain in Gaza. During a week-long ceasefire in November, 105 hostages were exchanged for 240 terrorists. Since then, however, Hamas has refused to release any more hostages without a permanent ceasefire and an end to the war. Israeli estimates suggest that only 77 hostages are still alive, having endured harsh conditions over the past nine months.