Fears of long war in Gaza as new chapter begins and ‘intense fighting’ subsides | Israel-Gaza war

Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that the period of “intense fighting” against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is coming to an end. But with no publicly revealed plans for the next phase of Israel’s actions, Palestinians and Israelis alike fear that the emerging chapter of the conflict could translate into a long period of insurgent warfare and indefinite occupation.

Israeli generals are expected to announce soon that the last major ground offensive in Gaza has ended in the southernmost city of Rafah. But the prime minister has made it clear that the war will not end until Israel achieves “total victory,” which he defines as the total annihilation of Hamas as a civil and military entity.

But nine months after the start of a campaign that was supposed to have ended in January, several of the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) stated goals remain unfulfilled, and fighting continues in areas supposedly under Israeli military control.

Although both sides signaled tentative progress last week, talks on a ceasefire and hostage release have repeatedly stalled. And despite enormous pressure from within and outside the country, the Israeli government has yet to reveal details of its post-war plans for Gaza. An Israeli observer briefed on the plans described them to this newspaper as “fantasies.”

“None of the scenarios that Netanyahu and his people have put forward so far are serious, and they must know that. The only conclusion we can draw is that he is trying to buy time,” said Nour Odeh, a Ramallah-based political analyst and commentator.

“Netanyahu does not want to end the war for political reasons. I fear we are heading towards a situation like in Somalia.”

Public statements by Israeli officials and leaked details suggest that two army divisions will remain in Gaza in the third phase of Israel’s war plan.

One of these units will be stationed in the newly created Netzarim Corridor, which divides the northern and southern halves of the Gaza Strip and is designed to prevent Gaza City residents from returning to their homes. The other unit will be stationed in the Philadelphia Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border to block Hamas’s most important lifeline – the extensive network of tunnels and smuggling routes in the area.

These troops will be tasked with conducting regular raids against suspected Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets throughout Gaza. This strategy is known as “mowing the grass” and is already being used in the West Bank. Israel has contacted Arab states such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to discuss the formation of a security force that could operate in Gaza after the war. However, according to diplomats in the region, support for such a model remains muted.

It is expected that the buffer zone between the separation fence and Israel itself will extend to a width of at least one kilometer across the entire area.

According to an analysis of satellite images by Gisha, a nonprofit organization that advocates for Palestinians’ right to freedom of movement, the buffer zone and the two land corridors expropriated for military purposes could together make up 32 percent of the territory.

The illegally occupied areas make up a large part of the agricultural land in the Gaza Strip, which is already insufficient to meet the needs of its 2.3 million inhabitants.

The US’s original plans to allow the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to regain control of the Gaza Strip after the ruling Fatah faction was expelled from the Gaza Strip by Hamas in 2007 have apparently stalled.

After 18 years without elections, the authority lacks political legitimacy and its prime minister previously stated that it would not return to the Gaza Strip “on board an Israeli tank.”

According to the Financial TimesRather, Israel is about to re-implement a failed plan from the early days of the conflict: “bubbles” run by locals such as respected elders with no ties to Hamas. These vetted individuals will manage the distribution of aid and, if successful, will have their responsibilities extended to areas of civilian government.

“Half a year ago, this same idea of ​​negotiating with clan leaders ended with the execution of several of them by Hamas,” said Michael Milshtein, director of the Forum for Palestine Studies at Tel Aviv University. “You can’t pretend to change something dramatically if you don’t have it under control.”

Milshtein believes that Israeli decision-makers must commit to controlling the entire Gaza Strip for the foreseeable future, with all the financial, military and legal consequences that entails, or be prepared to make a painful deal to end the war in which Hamas will most likely remain in power.

“I see no alternative to Hamas continuing to control the civilian sphere of the Gaza Strip. I don’t know if we are willing or able to occupy all of Gaza with ground troops,” he said. “There are no good options – there are only bad ones. We have to choose the least bad one.”