Debate over the merits of the old (“The Crown,” “The Morning Show”) versus the new (“Shogun,” “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”) (WATCH) – GoldDerby

Gold Derby

Last time, the Emmy drama series nominations were dominated by “Succession” (27 nominations), “The Last of Us” (24) and “The White Lotus” (23). None of the three are eligible this time around – nor is seven-time nominee “Better Call Saul” – and those nominations have to go somewhere. This complete change of guard in the drama series race opens the door for both newcomers like “Shogun,” “Fallout” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and returnees like “The Morning Show,” “Slow Horses” and “The Gilded Age” when it comes to the favorites.

This was still present to the senior editors of Gold Derby Daniel Montgomery, Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and editor for news and features Ray Richmond when they duelled in a slugfest over best drama series and the six acting categories. As for the biggest Emmy award in that category, Richmond can’t decide between “Shogun” and “The Crown” and expects to change his mind a few more times before nominations are announced on July 17. Not that he needs to pick a winner this early. “I have ‘Shogun,’ ‘The Crown,’ ‘The Gilded Age,’ ‘The Morning Show,’ ‘The Curse,’ ‘Slow Horses,’ ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith,’ and ‘Fallout’ as my eight,” he explains. “I know there are a few other shows I’m overlooking, like ‘3 Body Problem,’ ‘Loki,’ and ‘Ahsoka.’ I might add one of those later.” Watch the quartet’s lively discussion above.

“I think ‘Shogun’ wins and does quite well (in all the nominations),” Montgomery says. “‘Shogun’ and ‘The Crown’ are my top two and honestly the only ones I’m sure of. Literally anything else could be passed over and it wouldn’t surprise me. In such an open year, I think ‘The Morning Show’ will (finally) get in. Same with ‘The Gilded Age.'” Davidson agrees that it’s “a crazy category because there are two to three shows that I feel comfortable with. And the rest, well, we don’t know what (voters) are watching because it’s all completely open. I have ‘Shogun’ at number one, but we all kind of assume they love it, but we don’t really know. But we know they loved The Crown before, so it could win for its final season and there have been surprises before, especially in the acting choices.”

Dixon also believes the influx of so many new shows in the drama race makes it quite a wild card, and he too is expecting “Shogun” to win. “I think FX is going to have a really good night because ‘Shogun’ could win the drama, ‘The Bear’ could win the comedy series and ‘Fargo’ could win the miniseries. I can’t remember the last time one (single) network won all three.”

The competition in the Drama Actress category is also enormous. Montgomery chooses Anna-Lena Schröder of “Shogun” for the victory and sees Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) and Gold Derby pacemaker Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) as runners-up, “since they were both snubbed for their last eligible seasons and I don’t know if there’s enough love for them to go from snub to a win. I also Reese Witherspoon come back in (for “The Morning Show”). And Emma Stonefresh from winning an Oscar, nominated for “The Curse.” Davidson is going in a similar direction with most of his nominees – including Stone, even though she is “so weird and quirky” in her show – but hopes that Maya Erskine stands up for “Mr and Mrs Smith”. “I also have Carrie Coon (for “The Gilded Age”) I’m not sure about, so I might go with Maya.”

Richmond clearly chooses Erskine as a nominee “because she is so good and so strong and so entertaining and so funny in this show and has such great chemistry with Donald GloverI also try Elle Purnell for ‘Fallout’, but there are only a limited number of slots. In the meantime, Dixon asks: “Am I the only one who Carrie Preston nominated (for ‘Elsbeth’)?” When told he was nominated, he insisted, “Well, I have her because she carries the show. She’s a ‘Murder, She Wrote’ kind of character. She solves the murders and is very quirky. But I also have Anna (Sawai) as the winner. Dixon also noted that when he switched to drama acting, he was Sawai’s co-star in ‘Shogun.’ Hiroyuki Sanada win. (He and Slow Horses’ Gary Oldman are currently tied for the top spot in the Gold Derby odds.) I have Oldman in second place. I could imagine Gary Oldman winning and his show not even getting in. Am I crazy?”

No one was willing to comment specifically on Dixon’s mental state. But the others tried to give their picks for drama actors. Davidson does not believe Oldman will emerge victorious in this category, noting, “I sang the praises of ‘Slow Horses’ for Season 1 and nobody listened. He’s not just going to suddenly win Best Actor, especially when you have someone from ‘Shogun,’ a show that everyone expects to do so well. I think Dominic West from ‘The Crown’ is in second place and I have Gary in third because he is Gary Oldman. I also have Cosmo Jarvis from the nomination of “Shogun” and Walton Goggins from ‘Fallout’ and Donald Glover from ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith’.”

Montgomery also has Sanada in his sights for the win, followed by West, Glover and Oldman. “I get Jeff Bridges/’The Old Man’ vibes from ‘Slow Horses’,” he believes. “His stature and reputation will get him in, but I don’t think he’ll win. Then I’ve got Cosmo Jarvis, and for the last spot I’m taking a risk with Timothy Olyphant for ‘Justified: City Primeval’. He has already been nominated several times for various roles.” Richmond also puts Sanada as the winner, along with Oldman, West, Glover, Goggins and – as a last choice – Tom Hiddleston for “Loki.” “It’s just a hunch,” he concludes.

PREDICTIONS the Emmy nominees 2024 until July 17

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