What happens next to the Conservative Party?

Conservatives are thinking this weekend about what the future will look like.

The immediate answer is: things look bleak.

Rishi Sunak is still party leader and the people I speak to tell me he is prepared to stay in office for a few more months, but perhaps not much longer.

This would give the party time in the summer to find its next leader.

The point is that the entire set of rules for a leadership contest must be drawn up by a party committee that currently has no members.

This is the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs. It will meet next week to decide who will sit on its executive committee.

A timetable for a competition will then be drawn up. The party executive committee is also scheduled to meet early next week.

Here is the question that will be discussed within the party this weekend: How long should the Tories take to find a replacement for Mr Sunak?

Some argue that they should follow the model from 2005. Michael Howard lost the general election to Tony Blair but stayed in office for several more months to give the party space for a longer debate and discussion about its future.

David Cameron defeated the favorite David Davis and became Prime Minister in 2010.

Others think that things should move a little faster and take a look at the year 2010 to support their arguments.

When the current Lord Cameron became Prime Minister in 2010, the Labour Party spent some time trying to find a successor to Gordon Brown. The winner was Ed Miliband, who is now back in office as a Cabinet minister.

Some Tories, however, believe that the new government had by then succeeded in constructing a narrative about Labour’s excessive spending and the need for austerity – and that Ed Miliband had lost the debate before it had even begun because Cameron and Osborne had got ahead of their opponents.

Mr Sunak will not be stepping down immediately. I am told he is prepared to stay in charge for now, although he will be answering Prime Minister’s Questions and putting questions to Sir Keir Starmer in the coming weeks.

Clearly this will not be easy for Mr Sunak – the man who was defeated by the voters and is asking questions of the guy who defeated him.

However, he considers it his duty to serve his party, at least in the short term.

If things drag on any longer, he may run out of patience.

Those within the party who suggest that things need to move a little faster are looking at the prospect of a budget in September and say it would make sense to have a new party leader in place by then.

This would also mean that they would take office at the Conservative Party conference a few weeks later.

And the scramble for the best positions has already begun.

Former Interior Minister Suella Braverman did not even wait for election day to present her arguments.

And today I discover in my email inbox an invitation to the birthday celebrations of former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat.

I have no doubt that Mr Tugendhat, a former candidate for the party leadership, is enjoying the passing of another year as much as anyone else.

But he’s hosting the party during the week at a think tank in Westminster, so it’s not unreasonable to assume that there might be a dash of politics alongside a slice of birthday cake.

For others, the more pressing task this weekend is to figure out what’s next for them personally.

One former minister who lost his seat wrote to me: “Ultimately, a national political tsunami is unstoppable! Hopefully this is all just a small bump in the road when viewed from a distance.”

Let’s see.

This is where self-reflection begins for the Conservative Party.