Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to develop into a hurricane

Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and hit Texas on Monday. Possible impacts include flooding, storm surges, strong winds and tornadoes.

Current status: Beryl is centered in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is moving west-northwest. Wind shear, dry air, and land interaction with Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula have left Beryl in disarray. However, the storm is expected to intensify as it moves toward the Texas coast Sunday into Monday.

Below you can see the current location, information and satellite for Beryl, based on the latest warning from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect:

• Hurricane Warning: From the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to San Luis Pass, Texas. This means that hurricane conditions (wind speeds greater than 75 mph) are possible in these areas through Monday morning.
• Storm Surge Warning: From the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to High Island, Texas, including Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. This means that life-threatening storm surge flooding is possible.

Here is the latest predicted orbit and intensity for Beryl: Beryl’s forecast path has gradually shifted to the right (or east) over the past day. Beryl is expected to make landfall as a hurricane somewhere between Houston and Galveston and further south near Brownsville.

This change in the forecast track is due to Beryl moving further north than originally expected. Over the next day, Beryl will turn more to the northwest toward a weakening subtropical high pressure system over the southern United States and due to the influence of an upper-level low pressure system located west of Beryl.

Here’s a look at the general timeline based on the latest NHC forecast.

• This weekend: Beryl is expected to move northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, with the best chance of steady intensification to a hurricane beginning Sunday.
• Until Sunday evening: Preparations for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions along the Texas coast should be complete.
• Monday: The Texas coast is expected to experience damaging winds, storm surges, heavy rains and some tornadoes.

(​MORE: What the forecast cone means and what it doesn’t)

Potential impacts on the US:

Danger from damaging winds: The most likely areas of damaging winds are along the Central Texas coast, but that could change in future updates of Beryl’s forecast path. Anyone in the hurricane warning area should prepare for hurricane-force and/or tropical storm-force winds until the forecast becomes more certain.

These winds will arrive late Sunday into the early hours of Monday and then continue into Monday. The winds could cause power outages and tree damage in some areas.

Threat from storm surges, high surf waves and undercurrents: Beryl will contribute to elevated coastal water levels this weekend, with the largest storm surge arriving north and east of where the center makes landfall on Monday. Storm surge could be 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels when the largest storm surge arrives at high tide.

This could lead to flooding in low-lying coastal areas, as we saw in these areas during Tropical Storm Alberto in June.

Beryl will also produce strong surf and rip current conditions along the Texas coast this weekend before the storm arrives. The threat of rip current conditions will extend even farther east along the northern Gulf Coast.

Keep this in mind when planning a weekend beach holiday along these coastlines.

Flooding due to rain is likely: The first half of the new week will bring heavy rains near the coast and inland in East Texas and other parts of the South.

Rainfall of between 12 and 25 centimeters is possible from the central coast to eastern Texas, with total rainfall of up to 38 centimeters possible in some areas.

Here is the general timeline showing where there is an increased risk of excessive rainfall that could cause flooding.

-Late Sunday-Sunday night: Texas coast.

-Monday-Monday night: From the coast of Central and Upper Texas to East Texas, West Louisiana and the ArkLaTex region.

There is a risk of tornadoes: Tropical cyclones making landfall often create a tornado threat in the form of rainbands as they approach the coast and move inland. Here, a few tornadoes are possible from Beryl, based on the latest forecast from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

-Sunday-Sunday night: Middle and upper coast of Texas.

-​Monday-Monday night: From the coast of Upper Texas to western Louisiana.

Recap

It began on Friday, June 28, when the National Hurricane Center issued warnings for Tropical Depression 2, nearly 1,200 miles east of Barbados. Six hours later, it became Tropical Storm Beryl.

By the following afternoon, it was already Hurricane Beryl. On Sunday, June 30, it became the first hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin in June. That’s a rapid intensification from depression to Category 4 in just 48 hours.

(​MORE: The records Beryl broke at the beginning of the season)

After replacing its eyewall and passing between Barbados and Tobago, Beryl made landfall over the Grenada island of Carriacou shortly after 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, July 1, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). Beryl was the strongest in terms of wind speed among only two other Category 4 hurricanes in history near Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

On the island of Carriacou there was widespread devastation, the vegetation was largely ripped bare and numerous houses were damaged or destroyed.

Fallen trees, flooded roads, power outages and flooding from storm surges were reported in the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados and Tobago.

As the eyewall passed south of Barbados, a gust of 69 mph was recorded early Monday at Grantley Adams International Airport, the island’s largest airport. A wind gust of up to 121 mph was recorded in Grenada as the center of Beryl passed just north of the island. A gust of up to 64 mph was also reported in St. Lucia.

Just 12 hours after making landfall in the southern Windward Islands, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin on the evening of July 1. The following day, it reached a peak wind speed of 165 mph (265 km/h), making it the strongest July hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin.

Beryl hit Jamaica’s south coast on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and damaging winds. At Norman Manley International Airport on a peninsula south of the country’s capital, Kingston, winds reached gusts of up to 130 km/h on Wednesday afternoon and damaged part of a roof. This was the strongest hurricane in nearly 17 years, since Hurricane Dean in 2007.

When Beryl came closest to the planet on July 4, wind gusts on Grand Cayman Island reached speeds of up to 87 km/h.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl made landfall near Tulum, Mexico, early Friday morning with estimated sustained winds of 110 mph (177 kph). It was the strongest hurricane to hit the peninsula since Hurricane Delta in October 2020.

On Friday morning, wind gusts of up to 81 mph were recorded south of Playa del Carmen in the center of Beryl. A gust of up to 48 mph was recorded on Isla Mujeres, just off the coast of Cancun.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ The most breathtaking satellite images of Hurricane Beryl

-​ How to prepare for hurricane season

-​ The deadliest hurricanes and tropical storms in the US may surprise you