On the Northern Front: War against Hezbollah
Over the past nine months, the Israeli military has focused its campaign against Hezbollah mainly on military infrastructure within a radius of several tens of kilometers from the Israeli border, and in exceptional cases within a radius of 100 kilometers.
The targets included observation posts, outposts, warehouses, launch sites, command and control centers, weapons production facilities, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) runways, surface-to-air missile batteries, launch vehicles, launch pits and combat complexes that supported the attack plan of the Radwan Force (Hezbollah’s elite force against the Israeli home front).
In addition, Israeli forces killed over 350 activists, including senior commanders of Hezbollah’s military wing and over 150 terrorists from other Lebanese organizations such as Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Amal and Al-Jama’a Al-Islamiyya.
A scenario of all-out war against Hezbollah would require the Israeli forces to expand the list of targets to cover all of Lebanon, with two main areas of focus: Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. In 2006, debates arose between the political and security leadership over whether it was appropriate to destroy the civilian infrastructure of the Lebanese state or to focus on the Hezbollah state.
As mentioned above, over the past 15 years, the Shiite organization, with Iranian support, has sought to isolate itself from the Lebanese state in areas such as education, medicine, infrastructure (energy, water, finance, etc.). Hezbollah has even set up its own terminal at Beirut’s Al-Hariri airport, through which it can smuggle weapons systems, ammunition, components and raw materials for weapons production without the knowledge of Lebanese officials or foreign entities.
According to Tal Be’eri, research director at the Alma Research Institute, which monitors Hezbollah, it would be a mistake to attack Lebanon’s infrastructure supported by the US, France and Germany, as it could potentially damage the international legitimacy of actions against the Shiite organization.
“The Israeli forces’ target list should focus exclusively on Hezbollah. If there is a warehouse of weapons and ammunition at the airport in Beirut, it is clear that it should be attacked. However, it is not right to attack civilian infrastructure. If there is a Hezbollah military station? That should be attacked, but not the Lebanese state stations in Zahle, Tripoli and Beirut. Attacks on Lebanese infrastructure do not really bother Hezbollah. If there are weapons near these infrastructures, that is a different story.”
Hezbollah’s infrastructure
Hezbollah has a network of gas stations, fuel reservoirs and an independent solar infrastructure, which also includes financial infrastructure such as exchange offices and a banking network.
Hezbollah’s communications system includes antennas, transmitters, telephone exchanges, television channels, radio stations, newspapers, websites, a psychological warfare system and spokespeople.
Hezbollah has its own electricity grid and water plants that supply the organization’s activists, including its military wing. At certain locations throughout Lebanon, Hezbollah operates an independent solar system to avoid being dependent on Lebanese state systems.
In addition, there are Hezbollah-affiliated civilian infrastructure companies that are involved in building Hezbollah’s military infrastructure (outposts, camps, subways, bridges, etc.).
Finally, all civilian infrastructure is under the supervision of Jihad al-Bina, Hezbollah’s construction ministry, which reports to the organization’s executive council. It manages all the institutions of the terrorist organization’s state, is responsible for rebuilding its infrastructure after wars, and operates under the Iranian-backed Jihad al-Bina organization.
The IDF must focus on the following objectives
First, the Israel Defense Forces must primarily target the organization’s strategic assets: ballistic missiles, precision-guided missiles, surface-to-air missile systems, underground bunkers, launch bases and maritime infrastructure to prevent incursions and attacks.
Second, the Israeli forces must attack launch bases, medium- and long-range missile depots, ammunition depots, command centers and control facilities in the Dahiya district, the Bekaa Valley and other areas.
Third, the Israeli forces in southern Lebanon must attack short-range missiles, long-range anti-tank missiles, positions and command centers, axes of movement and secret locations of the Radwan forces in order to neutralize their ability to threaten the Israeli border.
First-class features
Over the past decade, the Israeli Air Force has demonstrated world-class capabilities in high-precision and high-speed air strikes. Nevertheless, several questions remain: Will the Israeli Air Force surprise or be surprised in a possible third Lebanon war? Will it initiate decisive actions such as targeted assassinations? And will it use its full range of air, land and sea capabilities?
Such capabilities require careful and precise preparations that involve coordination and deception at the highest levels. The question is whether the Israeli government will opt for a diplomatic arrangement, a limited operation with ground operations to create a security buffer zone, or an all-out war against Hezbollah.
Last month, following Hezbollah rocket attacks near the northern border, Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi pointed to the capabilities of the Israeli forces, saying: “We are preparing and developing solutions to deal with these and other capabilities, which we will also use in due course if necessary. We undoubtedly have unprecedented capabilities, which I believe the enemy only partially knows about, and he will meet them at the right time when necessary.”
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