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BRUSSELS: NATO leaders are set to pledge next week to continue supplying Ukraine with arms and ammunition at current levels for at least another year, as they seek to pledge their continued support to the war-torn country and show Russian President Vladimir Putin that they are not going to walk away.
US President Joe Biden and his counterparts will meet in Washington for a three-day summit starting Tuesday to mark the 75th anniversary of the military alliance, as Russian troops extend their lead along the eastern front in Ukraine in the third year of the war.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO’s 32 member states have spent around 40 billion euros ($43 billion) on military equipment for Ukraine every year since the war began in February 2022 and that this should be “a minimum baseline” in the future.
“I expect the allies will decide at the summit to maintain this level next year,” Stoltenberg said. He said the amount would be divided among nations based on their economic growth and leaders would review the figure at their next meeting in 2025.
NATO is keen to do more for Ukraine, but is struggling to find new ways. NATO allies already provide 99 percent of the military support it receives. The alliance will soon take over the supply of equipment. But two red lines remain: no NATO membership until the war is over, and no NATO troops on the ground.
At their last summit, NATO leaders agreed to speed up Ukraine’s accession process – even though the country is likely to be many years away – and to set up a high-level body for emergency consultations. Several countries promised more military equipment.
A year later, they are determined to demonstrate unity and determination once again, even as election uncertainty has left many of the organization’s most senior members in turmoil. They are particularly concerned about the possible return of Donald Trump, who undermined trust among allies as US president.
But the governments in France and Germany were also weakened in this year’s elections. Italy is led by a prime minister whose party has neo-fascist roots, while in the Netherlands an anti-immigration party leads a shaky coalition and the Spanish cabinet is reliant on the leadership of small parties. Britain will have a new head of government.
But whoever is in power, it is clear that NATO cannot do much more.
Stoltenberg has recently insisted on a long-term commitment to Ukraine. Significant delays in funding, largely due to political disputes in the US Congress, have left the country’s armed forces feeling, as he himself put it, “tied with one hand behind their back in defence”.
He had hoped that the Allies would agree to spend at least €40 billion a year on weapons as part of a “major, multi-year” program. But that does not mean an increase in support. The amount is roughly equivalent to what they have already spent every year since the war began.
One new initiative that leaders are likely to support is a mission to bring the right military equipment to Ukraine and optimize the training of the armed forces. In their rush to help, Western backers have flooded Ukraine with weapons and equipment of all kinds.
In the early chaos of the war, anything was welcome, but now supplies have become unmanageable – a multitude of different types of vehicles or defense systems requiring different maintenance schedules and special supply chains to keep them running.
There are also numerous training programs available outside Ukraine. These are so numerous and varied that the Ukrainian armed forces find it difficult to set priorities as to which troops should be sent to which NATO country and for what period of time.
“We have let a thousand flowers bloom,” a senior US State Department official acknowledged, but added that with a new mission, likely to be based in Wiesbaden and probably led by a US general, NATO “can step in and say: We have it under control.”
The official requested anonymity to discuss plans that have not yet been finalized.
Sending military equipment through this new mission would also prevent rogue governments or leaders from interfering in joint deliveries. NATO officials say the mission would complement the U.S.-led arms procurement effort, known as the Ramstein Group.
The US will announce new steps to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and military capabilities, according to a senior Biden administration official.
The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity in accordance with White House ground rules, declined to provide details on the air defense capabilities to be delivered. But the administration indicated last month that the U.S. will speed up the delivery of interceptor missiles to Ukraine by redirecting planned shipments to other allied nations.
The official said members of the NATO-Ukraine Council will meet for the summit on Thursday. Later that day, Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event with the leaders of nearly two dozen other nations that have negotiated and signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine.
A conundrum for NATO leaders is how to articulate Ukraine’s prospects for membership without letting it join. Many allies refuse to admit Ukraine as long as fighting continues, for fear of being drawn into a larger war with Russia. Hungary is opposed to Ukraine’s membership on principle.
Ahead of the summit, NATO envoys are considering using words like “irreversible” to describe Ukraine’s path to membership, honing wording that has changed constantly since they promised in 2008 that the country would one day join.
It is unclear how this will be received in Kyiv. At their last meeting, the leaders did not comment on a timeframe. They simply said they were “in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance if the allies agree and the conditions are met.”
Zelenskyy called it “unprecedented and absurd that no time frame is set for either the invitation or Ukraine’s membership.” He complained that “even for Ukraine’s invitation, vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added.”
In recent weeks, Zelensky and other Ukrainian politicians have been briefed on the developments to avoid a repeat of the criticism. Stoltenberg said he and Zelensky agreed earlier this month that the new steps the leaders will take “will provide a bridge to NATO membership and a very strong package for Ukraine at the summit.”
Membership would protect Ukraine from a giant neighbor that annexed the Crimean peninsula a decade ago and has more recently seized vast swathes of land in the east and south. Before that happens, Kyiv must reform its security institutions, improve governance and curb corruption.