MLB DFS: Model picks and value plays at DraftKings for July 5

FantasyLabs’ MLB player models contain numerous data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.

They include our floor, center and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our trend tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to manually build your teams for cash games or small field tournaments.

Let’s take a look at some MLB plays that stand out in our player models for today’s roster.

Bargain Rating Selection

You may be wondering: What is the bargain rating and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how cheap a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than another, he will have a positive Bargain Rating on the site where he is cheaper and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where he is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting players with discounted prices is almost always a good strategy in DFS.

Bargain rating is highly correlated with player value, which you can quickly see with our projected plus/minus metric.

Given that Plus/Minus helps you estimate a player’s likely number of points compared to what his salary implies, this is a good company for bargain valuation.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Lenyn Sosa ($2,300): Third Baseman, Chicago White Sox

Lenyn Sosa is an interesting low-cost prospect who has been on a winning streak of late. The White Sox third baseman has hit two of his four home runs this season in his last five games. He has had at least two hits in each of those five games, with a total of six RBIs.

Sosa has a batting average of .252/.287/.392 with 15 RBI and two stolen bases in 43 games this season. He has a plus/minus average of +3.77 over the last 10 games and a hard hit percentage of 44.9 overall.

Bryan Hoeing makes his first start of the season for Miami tonight after 11 relief pitching appearances. He has an impressive 1.83 ERA in 19.2 innings.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Tips

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Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

In five June launches, Tyler Glasnow allowed one run or less in three games and five runs in each of the other two. He managed 12 strikeouts in one of the down games to save his fantasy day, but he couldn’t save his last start on June 29, lasting just three innings with one strikeout.

This season, Glasnow is 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. In 17 starts, he has a K% of 33.9 and an xBA of .194.

The model projects Glasnow to get back to winning ways tonight against the Brewers. Using PlateIQ, Milwaukee’s projected lineup has a .131 ISO and a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. They have a low hit-and-run projection with a decent home run expectation.

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Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,800) in the Colorado Rockies

The eyes of lost imagination are Bobby Witt Jr. tonight at Coors Field. He tops the list of top players with tremendous projection in the league’s best hitter-friendly park. The Royals’ 24-year-old star leads the American League with 113 hits and 24 doubles.

Witt Jr. is having the best statistical season of his young career, hitting .319/.369/.556. He has 14 home runs and 58 RBIs with 22 stolen bases, making him one of the most versatile fantasy scorers in the league.

The model expects Witt Jr. to extend his 14+ DraftKings point streak to five games tonight against Kyle FreelandThe Rockies left-hander has a 0-3 record and a 7.94 ERA this season.

More DraftKings MLB DFS hitters and pitchers

One of the great benefits of a FantasyLabs Pro membership is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. This purchase allows you to use his projections alone or create aggregated projections within our player models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend using THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to identify some hitters that stand out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitchers

Pablo Lopez ($9,400) against Houston Astros

Pablo Lopez is an interesting option tonight with a low floor and a high roof. The Twins right-hander has the fifth-most strikeouts (110) and the fifth-most runs allowed (52) in the American League.

Overall, Lopez is 8-6 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He was 3-1 with a 5.00 ERA in June and has similar splits for home/away games and against hitters on both sides of the plate. He has 23 strikeouts in his last two starts with 30.5 and 48.2 DraftKings totals.

The Astros have two high-ISO hitters in their current lineup, but are one of the hardest teams in the league to get a strikeout against, with a K% of 19.1.

Available now: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator, which uses the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.

MLB DFS BatsS

Maikel Garcia ($5,400) at the Colorado Rockies

Kansas City has the highest implied run total on the main slate when they visit Colorado this weekend. Friday’s game with the Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is exciting for the visitors, as Freeland is still looking for his first win of the season. In six starts, he is 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA.

Maikel Garcia is the top-rated Royals hitter in the model, despite a plus/minus average of -1.84 over his last 10 games. In his second full season in the major leagues, Garcia has a batting average of .226/.279/.333 with five home runs and 40 RBIs.

Garcia struggled in June, hitting .142/.209/.189, and has just one hit so far in July. The model is expecting a strong offensive performance from Kansas City tonight, and Garcia should be the biggest beneficiary.

Jonathan India ($4,000) vs. Detroit Tigers

The ceiling may not be sky high for Jonathan India with six home runs and 35 RBI on the season, but he has still scored 20+ DraftKings points three times in his last 10 games. He has a plus/minus average of +7.60 with just one long bomb during that span.

India has a batting average of .278/.383/.415 and has a knack for reaching base for free with 42 BB and seven HBP. He has a .284 xBA and a 41.6% sweet spot rate this season.

The Reds face right-handers Reese Olson tonight in Cincinnati. Olson is 2-8 in 16 starts and has a respectable 3.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.