Paul Skenes is a phenomenon, but his chances of winning the Rookie of the Year title are slim

In other words, we’re currently witnessing what may be one of the best rookie pitcher seasons in baseball history. But that doesn’t mean you should rush out and bet on Skenes winning the National League Rookie of the Year award.

Let me be clear: I’m not saying Skenes doesn’t deserve the award or won’t win it. But the value he offers in the betting markets is poor and you should look for alternatives when betting on this market.

Skenes is rated -270, meaning you’d need to bet $270 to have a chance of winning $100. The price of this bet implies a 73 percent chance of Skenes winning the prize, which is high for a couple of reasons. First, we’re dealing with a small sample size so far. Second, Skenes is a valuable player on a team that has little chance of making the playoffs, making him a strong candidate for a managed workload.

How many innings will Pittsburgh’s front office have Skenes pitch in his rookie year, especially if the Pirates are eliminated from the wild-card race? The latest projections from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs suggest he will pitch around 106 innings, with an estimated 2.4 wins above replacement. Both totals would be low for a Rookie of the Year Award winner.

The last starting pitcher to win the NL Rookie of the Year award was Jacob deGrom in 2014. He pitched 140⅓ innings with a 2.69 ERA and a 3.6 WAR, according to FanGraphs. José Fernández was the 2013 Rookie of the Year with 172⅔ innings and 4.2 fWAR.

Additionally, the eventual NL Rookie of the Year led all NL rookies in WAR five times over the past decade and finished in the top three eight times. Skenes is expected to finish seventh among candidates for the season-ending award for Wins Above Replacement.

A top-notch alternative appears to be betting on Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz, at prices ranging from +1000 (bet $100, win $1000) to +2200. He has a .275 batting average with an OPS of .835 (35% higher than the MLB average) and a 2.6 WAR that leads all major league rookies, and is the best of all NL third basemen with at least 150 plate appearances this season, according to FanGraphs. His high odds could reflect injury concerns – he’s on the 10-day injured list with neck inflammation – but it doesn’t look like he’ll be out for any length of time.

Two other players are worth mentioning: pitcher Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs and center fielder Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres.

Imanaga has taken the majors by storm with one of the most effective, albeit slowest, fastballs we’ve seen this season. He’s 7-2 with 84 strikeouts in 85 innings and a league-low 1.5 walks per nine innings. However, he’s never pitched more than 170 innings in a season, which he did in Japan in 2019. He’s on track to pitch 193 innings in 2024. Can he keep it up? At +1100 (bet $100, win $1100), he’s worth exploring in limited quantities.

Merrill upped his game in June, leading all qualified rookies in hits, home runs, doubles, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS that month. Thanks to his winning streak, he is the rookie leader in home runs (12) and the sole leader in hits (85) and RBI (42). If Ortiz falters, Merrill could lead the NL rookie class in WAR. Unfortunately, that projection is already built into his +340 (bet $100, win $340) price tag for the Rookie of the Year award, making him the second-best betting favorite and not particularly lucrative given the risk.