Hezbollah puts pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire
Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news website Al Mayadeen reported that Hamas was sticking to its demands in the latest draft ceasefire and hostage-taking agreement, drawn up with the participation of CIA Director William Burns and coordinated by Qatar, Egypt and Turkey.
According to the report, Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, including the Philadelphia Corridor and the Rafah crossing, and the return of displaced people. It also refuses to allow Israel to veto the release of Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences.
However, Hamas is reportedly showing flexibility regarding certain clauses regarding the continuation of negotiations.
According to an earlier report by Al Akhbar, another Hezbollah-affiliated news site, the proposal differs from an earlier version.
The differences between the proposals were not detailed, but the media source emphasized the “clear and unambiguous language” regarding a ceasefire.
The plan aims to ensure sustainable calm during negotiations between the different phases of the agreement.
It contains provisions for a withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Rafah crossing area in cooperation with Egypt, subject to border protection agreements, and provisions that allow Israel only a partial withdrawal from the Philadelphia Corridor.
Hezbollah attacks Israel with rockets
Meanwhile, Hezbollah fired a barrage of 200 rockets and 20 drones at Israel on July 4 to further fatigue Israeli forces and avenge the death of a senior commander killed in a recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attack.
Professor Kobi Michael, senior researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, shared his analysis with The Media Line.
He stressed that the link between Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon must be addressed.
“Even if we reach an agreement with Hamas and release the hostages, there is a very high probability that this agreement will be broken in the second phase, perhaps even in the first, and then we will find ourselves in another collision,” Michael explained.
He added that Israel must also prepare for another conflict with Hezbollah in the north. “The idea that they can still threaten Israel and that Israel has a buffer zone on its territory can no longer be tolerated. To change the equation, we must change the reality on the ground in southern Lebanon so that this region does not become a threat again. This can be achieved through diplomatic agreements, but I am very skeptical in this regard and do not believe there is any possibility of reaching such an agreement.”
“If we make such an agreement, I am sure it will be broken the day after it is signed. There is no strong peacekeeping force that could force Hezbollah to implement an agreement. We have to be realistic in this regard,” Michael said.
“Even if we achieve a ceasefire in the north, it will be limited and will not last long. I expect that, one way or another and sooner or later, we will find ourselves at war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and that even Iran could be directly involved.”
“Israel insists on three principles. The first is that a ceasefire would only be a pause, not the end of the war. The second is that Israeli forces will remain in strategic areas, including the Philadelphia Corridor. The third is that all hostages will be returned, dead or alive,” he continued.
Michael pointed out that Hamas has its own demands: a ceasefire that would mean an end to the war, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and guarantees that Israel will not later persecute its leaders. He said these demands are unacceptable to Israel because they would allow Hamas to remain the sovereign power in Gaza.
“I see enormous difficulties in bridging these differences, and even if an agreement is reached, the differences will remain. That is why I believe Hamas will break the agreement. They also do not plan to release the hostages immediately; they want to release three a week, and if the negotiations do not go as desired, they will stop releasing the hostages. If that happens, Israel will resume the war,” he said.
Hezbollah’s July 4 attack on Israel is part of its “kinetic diplomacy.” Hezbollah claims it will stop the attack if Israel agrees to a ceasefire and escalate it if Israel retaliates.
“In a sense, Israel is in the hands of Hezbollah. Israel does not want to escalate the war. However, if things remain as they are, Iran and its proxies will continue this war of attrition to exhaust Israel’s military forces, economy, society and morale. Unfortunately, they are doing an excellent job of doing so. We need to change the rules of the game, and it is better to do this sooner rather than later,” Michael concluded.
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