Opinion | Freund: So far, reports about Biden’s political decline have been greatly exaggerated

In the aftermath of the first presidential debate, one is reminded of a play on words with the famous quote by Mark Twain: “Reports of Joe Biden’s political death have been greatly exaggerated.”

For whatever reason—a desire to make sweeping predictions, a lack of historical awareness, or a lack of understanding that the only thing that matters is the Electoral College—many people predicted that Biden would lose the election after his disappointing performance.

Maybe that will be the result, because the president’s performance did him no favors.

But it is completely premature to believe that Donald Trump has already won this race.

Here’s a look at the current state of affairs.

First, given the distasteful rhetoric currently circulating, a bit more civility toward Biden would be in order. You don’t have to agree with his policies or even like the man, but he is still the President of the United States and our Commander in Chief, and he and the office deserve our respect.

This has nothing to do with partisanship, as I said this many times when Donald Trump was in office. We are all better off when civility and respect prevail. Let’s hope that both sides focus more on politics than on personal attacks.

Second, the debate has not significantly changed the dynamics of the election. On issues ranging from beliefs to insight, from communication to charisma, the positions of many have long been firmly established.

Translation: No amount of debate will sway large sections of any base, no matter how outstanding or poor a performance may be.

Trump’s supporters are energized and eager for revenge, and the pro-Biden base is complemented by a passionate anti-Trump faction.

This leaves the choice to the relatively small American middle class. And predicting their voting decision, especially so early in the election campaign, is a fool’s errand.
Order.

This brings us to the next point: if you are going to stumble, it is much better to do so early.

How many times have we seen sports teams struggle at the beginning of a season, but then, when it matters most, pick themselves up and start the season full steam ahead?

While this does not mean that President Biden can turn things around and restore confidence in his leadership, it is certainly possible.

People’s memories are short, so while the president has his hands full, time will help fade voters’ memories of his debate performance, especially if he becomes clearer and more eloquent on the campaign trail and in interviews.

And when the stakes are highest – the debate much closer to the election – Biden can gain momentum and give new impetus to his candidacy if he appears united and courageous.

Like Trump, Biden has the ability to speak spontaneously and in an informal, understandable manner.

If he – and at the moment that seems to be a big “if” – can shine on the next debate stage or at least hold his own, that could be enough to
to win back skeptical independents and swing voters to his side.

Trump, for his part, did well, but I think that was more due to Biden’s performance than to the former president’s outstanding performance.
Perfomance.

If he had debated differently, it could have been a Grand Slam. But he didn’t, and a golden opportunity was lost.

Instead of resorting to superlatives, he should have cited more concrete facts, both about the successes under his leadership and about the deterioration of the situation during the Biden administration.

Trump sensed that the president was having a bad night, so he should have just focused on politics and not mentioned cognitive issues, since the president was dealing with them all on his own.

This would have made him appear not only more competent, but also extremely presidential.

Instead, he talked about things like golf.

All one can say about both candidates is that they are not musically correct.

If either of them had interrupted the golf discussion and admonished the other – “You are talking about golf with the elite while the average American is desperately struggling to put food on the table, buy medicine, and heat his home” – that would have been a decisive moment.

Trump also missed his chance to please both sides in classic debate fashion. He could have complimented the president on his good work on two big issues – by presenting himself in a bipartisan and respectful manner – and in doing so could have actually infuriated Biden’s electorate.

By thanking Joe Biden for approving a huge oil drilling project and thousands of permits for oil and natural gas production, Trump would have reminded large parts of the Democratic base, especially many climate activists and environmentalists, of Biden’s policy decisions, which they strongly opposed.

Likewise, he could have gratefully acknowledged the president’s strong support for Israel and praised him for supplying weapons and support for the fight in Gaza. Such a stance could have further angered many in the Democratic Party who view the administration’s support of Israel as anathema.

In either case, Trump would not have lost any of his voting base. But he would likely have sown discord in Democratic circles while showing himself to be humble and bipartisan – qualities he must develop to appeal to swing voters, especially if Biden is not his opponent in November.

It looks like this election will be close – perhaps even razor-thin – but the outcome in many states is already certain.

In other words, no matter how much Biden stumbles, he will lose most of New England, the Pacific Coast (excluding Alaska), much of the Middle
Atlantic and several Midwestern states.

He has won numerous states with important electoral turnouts – California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey – and can therefore start with a considerable number of votes in the Electoral College.

Even if Trump’s legal obligations get worse or he says something unusual, even for him, he will most likely still win Texas and Florida, most
The Rocky Mountains in the West and the Great Plains, important states in the Midwest (Missouri and probably Ohio) and the South, which also gives him a high number of votes.

As always, it is the crucial swing states – especially Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – that decide the winner.

Since the elections in these states will be close, any single issue could swing the vote one way or the other. Perhaps abortion rights will motivate people to pull the Democratic lever rather than vote “for” Biden.

Perhaps America’s support for Israel will deter pro-Palestinian Democrats from voting for the president.

Or perhaps a narrow majority of voters in the swing states are turning against The Donald simply because they do not want a return to a climate in which only Trump is in office.

The point: nobody knows.

Since 2020, many Trump critics, both Democrats and Republicans, have claimed that Trump is finished and simply cannot win.

And yet he is now leading in some polls and is seen by many not only as the frontrunner but also as the man to beat.

Let us not forget that many had predicted a massive “red wave” for the 2022 midterm elections, but the reality was quite different. And do we need to be reminded how many people were surprised by the outcome of the 2016 election?

With political predictions and a dollar you can buy a cup of coffee.

This race is just beginning and it is anyone’s guess what the winning candidate’s trump card will be.

Chris Freind is an independent columnist and commentator whose column appears weekly. You can reach him at [email protected]