Newsom’s July 4 visit to West Michigan goes beyond supporting Biden, experts say
California Governor Gavin Newsom is spending Independence Day near Lake Michigan, coming to the state to campaign for President Joe Biden amid widespread doubts about the Democratic president’s re-election chances following his lackluster debate performance last week.
According to a Facebook page promoting the event, Newsom is listed as a special guest at the Van Buren County Democratic Party’s July 4 “BBQ for Biden-Harris” event in South Haven on Thursday.
The Biden team praised Newsom’s stop in western Michigan in a statement Wednesday, indicating that campaign staff were “excited” about his visit to a Lake Michigan beach town whose year-round population of 4,000 swells in the summer with tourists and seasonal visitors, particularly from Democratic stronghold Chicago.
“As president, Joe Biden has always cared about Michigan, created good-paying jobs, lowered costs and fought for our freedoms, and we look forward to mobilizing voters across West Michigan to send him back to the White House,” said Ed Duggan, national director of the Biden-Harris campaign.
Longtime political observers, however, say Newsom’s last-minute trip to a crucial Midwestern swing state appears to be as much about positioning himself for a future presidential run as it is about boosting Biden’s campaign in a difficult situation.
“(Newsom) has national ambitions. Everyone knows that,” said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, noting that swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are crucial for politicians with their eyes on the White House.
“If Biden fails and there is actually a public convention – which I doubt – (Newsom) will probably run. I don’t think he will have a choice at all,” Sabato added.
According to the Associated Press, Biden assured Democrats in a phone call on Wednesday that he would not drop out of the race.
“I’m running. I’m the leader of the Democratic Party. Nobody is pushing me out,” Biden said, according to a senior adviser who posted his comment on the social media platform X.
Sabato pointed out that Newsom – despite circulating speculation that he might replace Biden – was one of the first Democrats to appear on television after last week’s debate against Republican Donald Trump and endorse Biden despite his “appalling, historically awful performance.”
Newsom, Sabato said, “is doing an excellent job for Biden and hopes to get something in return. Welcome to politics.”
Matthew Dowd, a Michigan political strategist who supports both Republicans and Democrats, agreed.
“I think it’s the right thing to do to support the party. But I also think it’s politically smart for Gavin Newsom because it shows the party that he’s not one of those people who abandon the sinking ship,” Dowd said.
Both Dowd and Sabato said they view Michigan as a crucial indicator in this year’s election, making it a popular target for Democratic surrogates. “Tell me the results in Michigan, and I’ll tell you who wins the presidency,” Dowd said.
On Wednesday, Sabatos Crystal Ball, a political forecasting magazine, changed its forecast for Michigan in the presidential race from “leaning Democratic” to “undecided,” along with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.
“I don’t know why the rest of us are paying attention to the election,” Sabato said. “We’re not important, but Michigan is important.”
Despite Michigan’s importance, some are unclear whether Newsom’s visit will help Biden.
Political consultant Adrian Hemond, a Democrat and CEO of Lansing-based Grassroots Midwest, said Newsom’s appearance in South Haven could help raise his profile in southwest Michigan but will not help the Biden-Harris ticket in the Great Lakes state.
“A slick, wealthy politician from California is not what voters in West Michigan are looking for. I’m sure he will bring renewed energy to Democrats who know him,” Hemond said. “But when it comes to helping Biden’s campaign where it is currently suffering — with independents — Gavin Newsom is not going to do anything for you.”
More: Biden vows to continue running after his disastrous debate. “Nobody is pushing me out,” he says
Meanwhile, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was expected in Washington, DC, on Wednesday to attend a meeting with Democratic governors and Biden at the White House, an event aimed at cementing support for the president following the debate.
Newsom and Whitmer are among several names being discussed as Biden’s successors should he drop out of the presidential race. Their names, along with Vice President Kamala Harris, have been frequently mentioned as possible successors.
Some political pundits and at least one Democratic congressman, Texas Rep. Lloyd Doggett, called on Biden to drop out of the presidential race after the president spoke softly, made confused and at times incoherent remarks during last Thursday’s debate.
More: Jill Biden highlights summer nutrition programs in West Michigan
Both Newsom and Whitmer publicly expressed their support for Biden during the debate. Whitmer reiterated on Monday that she is “100%” convinced that Biden can win Michigan in November. Whitmer is co-chair of Biden’s campaign team.
“Not only do I believe Joe can win Michigan, I know it because he has the revenue to do it: he has reduced health care costs, brought back manufacturing jobs and is committed to giving women back the reproductive freedom they lost under Donald Trump,” Whitmer said in a statement Monday.
Newsom campaigned in Nevada and South Carolina earlier this year as a Biden campaign surrogate. He plans to campaign in Pennsylvania on Saturday and New Hampshire on Monday, according to a social media post by Newsom’s deputy communications director, Brandon Richards.
Newsom’s visit to Van Buren County is not the campaign’s first foray into western Michigan. In February, Harris joined Whitmer on a panel discussion on abortion, and in April, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker campaigned for Biden in Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Holland.
First Lady Jill Biden also made campaign stops in western Michigan on Wednesday, which the Michigan Republican Party ridiculed with a statement welcoming “the real President Biden to Michigan.”
“Under Joe Biden’s failed leadership, our economy is in shambles, our manufacturing jobs are at risk, and our neighbors are falling victim to illegal immigrants. We urgently need common sense solutions, and the people of Michigan know it,” Victoria LaCivita, spokeswoman for the Michigan GOP and Team Trump Michigan, said in a statement.
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