MLB DFS: Model picks and value plays at DraftKings for July 2

FantasyLabs’ MLB player models contain numerous data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.

They include our floor, center and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our trend tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to manually build your teams for cash games or small field tournaments.

Finally, be sure to check out PlateIQ – one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s take a look at some MLB plays that stand out in our player models for today’s roster.

Bargain Rating Selection

You may be wondering: What is the bargain rating and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how cheap a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than another, he will have a positive Bargain Rating on the site where he is cheaper and a bad Bargain Rating on the site where he is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting players with discounted prices is almost always a good strategy in DFS.

Bargain rating is highly correlated with player value, which you can quickly see with our projected plus/minus metric.

Given that Plus/Minus helps you estimate a player’s likely number of points compared to what his salary implies, this is a good company for bargain valuation.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Brendan Rodgers ($3,700): Second Base, Colorado Rockies

Baseball is a sport with a lot of tradition, and one of the newer practices to emerge from that institution is the ability to spot a fantasy value play at Coors Field. Brendan Rodgers is the latest hitter to emerge as an undervalued option, catching our eye as the projected plus/minus leader in our model.

Rodgers’ position at the top of the value rankings is validated by his solid analytics profile and recent upward trajectory. Heading into Tuesday’s showdown against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Colorado Rockies second baseman has multiple hits four times in his last seven games. He has also collected three hits and struck out four more times.

We expect more of the same from Rodgers in his hitter-friendly environment, especially against a left-handed pitcher. The former third-round pick is cleaning up against lefties, posting a .582 slugging percentage and a .950 OPS. That’s in addition to his 44.9% hard-hit rate this season.

Rodgers has reached double-digit fantasy points in four of his last eight games, a trend that should easily continue against the Brew Crew.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Tips

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Tarik Skubal ($10,500) vs. Minnesota Twins

There’s no better way to break a losing streak than to field the team’s best players for a crucial divisional matchup. The Detroit Tigers have lost five of their last seven games and are desperately trying to get their season back on track before heading into the All-Star break. Fortunately, Tarik Skubal has what it takes to get the Tigers back on track on Tuesday.

After struggling through two starts, Skubal was able to return to his Cy Young award-winning form in his last start. The 27-year-old threw 7.0 scoreless innings, reversing a lackluster streak. That gives him 12 good starts this season, including four of his last six. With his improved form, we should see Skubal make a splash against the Minnesota Twins.

The Tigers star has been an unstoppable force every time he’s been on the floor. Skubal ranks in the 89th percentile or better in several notable categories, including expected ERA, whiff rate and strikeout percentage. Even when things go south, Skubal has the tools to pitch out of any jam, posting a 22.2% swing-and-miss rate in four of his five attempts.

Aside from a rarely used knuckle curve, Skubal effectively mixes up his pitchers and leaves batters unprepared at the plate. More importantly, that translates into tangible results on the field. The Tigers’ left-hander is at the top of the leaderboard in nearly every advanced category. Skubal comes at a hefty price, but against the Twins, he’s worth the investment.

Batsman

William Contreras ($6,200) vs. Colorado Rockies

After a terrible start in June, William Contreras is making a late push to become the starting catcher in the MLB All-Star Game. The Brewers catcher has been in top form of late and, like the aforementioned Brenden Rodgers, will benefit from the thin mountain air of Coors Field.

Heading into today’s divisional clash against the Rockies, Contreras has an impressive 6-for-13 record in his last three games. Overall, he has a double, a home run, three runs and two RBIs during that span, and those numbers should continue to rise on Tuesday.

His outstanding bat velocity and slugging rate help him rank in the 88th and 92nd percentiles, respectively, resulting in an expected slugging percentage of .471. Compared to his actual rating of .451, Contreras still has room for improvement.

That upward trend continues against Ryan Feltner. The Rockies’ likely starter has a generous 5.82 ERA this season, which improves to 7.43 at home, where he has allowed six home runs and 60 baserunners in 36.1 innings, ensuring Contreras continues his recent performances.

Four of Contreras’ last nine hits resulted in extra bases, and that momentum carries him to tonight’s main roster. While several notable players are available, we like Contreras’ potential the most. That position is reflected in our modeling, with Contreras among the best hitters in the median and potential projections.

More DraftKings MLB DFS hitters and pitchers

One of the great benefits of a FantasyLabs Pro membership is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. This purchase allows you to use his projections alone or create aggregated projections within our player models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend using THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to identify some hitters that stand out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitchers

George Kirby ($8,700) vs. Baltimore Orioles

George Kirby deserves more than the 7-5 record he has posted halfway through the 2024 season. The imposing right-hander is among the MLB leaders in ERA and WHIP, but has received limited run support. While we can’t say how much help he’ll get from the offense against the Baltimore Orioles, we expect Kirby to finish the night as one of the top-performing pitchers again.

Kirby hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last six starts. During that span, the former All-Star has allowed seven earned runs in 37.0 innings pitched while posting a decent 1.70 ERA. As expected, baserunners have been kept to a minimum, with just 33 batters facing an even more impressive 0.89 WHIP. Despite that, Kirby has only earned three wins during that span, a number that should rise with continued effort.

We’re also seeing the best of what Kirby has to offer in terms of strikeouts, which increases his fantasy appeal. His K/9 rate has modestly increased to 9.5, above his season average of 8.7. His four-seamer continues to be his bread-and-butter pitch, a throw that causes a 28.9% whiff rate and benches batters at a 32.7% rate. Kirby throws the pitch 36.5% of the time and should continue to produce good results with his heater.

And finally, T-Mobile Park has been Kirby’s fortress of solitude this season. He’s posted an MVP-worthy 2.35 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in seven home games, going 5-1. Kirby’s price isn’t as high as it is, but his stats and our projections prove he’s one of the best players on the main roster. Take advantage of his lower-than-deserved salary on Tuesday.

Available now: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator, which uses the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.

MLB DFS Bats

Yordan Alvarez ($5,500) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Nobody is hitting the ball better right now than Yordan Alvarez. The Houston Astros slugger finished June with a 1.139 OPS, hitting seven dongs and 16 extra-base hits in 86 at-bats. Somehow, Alvarez raised the bar even higher in his first start of July, a feat we expect him to match on Tuesday against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Alvarez is hitting the ball straight. His .709 batting average in June has brought his season-long batting average to .528, but he’s still well below expectations. The Astros’ designated hitter is in the 98th percentile of expected batting average, hitting .571 on the season, meaning there’s more growth to come. As expected, that number is backed up by his outstanding bat velocity, power and walk-off performance, suggesting Alvarez is operating from a sustainable position.

We’re even more confident in this position knowing that Jose Berrios is on the mound for the Jays. The soft-throwing right-hander throws for contact, a strategy that has earned Berrios a spot in the 28th percentile in expected ERA. Opposing batters take advantage of every one of his throws, and Berrios has a suboptimal expected slugging percentage of .438.

All of these concerns are magnified against left-handed hitter Alvarez, an unnecessary advantage for the 27-year-old as he solidifies his position in the MVP conversation. Alvarez continues to improve over the summer months, and Berrios is just adding fuel to the fire.

Corey Seager ($5,000) vs. San Diego Padres

Seager remains one of the best-hitting shortstops in the major leagues and should score points against Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres bullpen.

Left-handed hitter Seager has a fundamental advantage over right-hander Dylan Cease, but his advantage goes much deeper than that. The three-time Silver Slugger has the best analytical profile of any shortstop, ranking in the 93rd percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate.

Predictably, he’s best against right-handed hitters. Seager’s slugging percentage goes up 80 points, pushing his OPS up from .672 to .862. Additionally, Cease has nothing in his repertoire that can upset Seager. He has an abysmal 10.8% barrel rate, putting him in the ninth percentile.

Seager enters tonight’s inter-league clash with a seven-game hitting streak. We’re betting he can add to that number against the Padres, leading to even more run production numbers at home. His salary has dropped, but Seager remains a top fantasy producer every time he steps on the field.