Vahva likely value in duel

Fans of this space know that one of my favorite games is, “What if it was a linked entry?”

I like the exercise because it helps to illustrate how likely a particular group of horses is to win a race, which can be particularly useful when betting on multiple races.

Five horses competed in Saturday’s Chicago Stakes at Churchill Downs, but two are by far the most likely winners: #1 Society, the 4-5 morning favorite, and #3 Vahva, the second even-odds morning favorite.

I agree and give them an 87 percent chance of winning Chicago, which is 1 in 8 odds (roughly between 1 in 5 and 1 in 10). The Morning Line doesn’t give any indication that any of the underdogs are worth betting on, so it’s wise to back one of the favorites here.

In terms of fair odds, I actually think Vahva is the more likely winner, so the possibility is there. That said, if Society really are the favourites, then Vahva is worth betting on. At least as the second choice in the morning to my opinion that she is the most likely winner, Vahva is the outright individual winner in multi-race betting.

Why the confidence? Well, I’m not a fan of Society considering that low price after the layoff. She is undoubtedly the fastest horse at her best, but all those big numbers came later in a cycle of form. That said, I’m inclined to “give her one.”

Vahva, on the other hand, is in top form. She turned the tables on Alva Starr in the last race and returns after a seven-week break for her third race in 2 1/2 months. Alva Starr has already won again, which is an even greater confidence boost.

It’s worth taking a look at the exacta payout because if Society isn’t at all prepared for her return, the No. 4 Chi Town Lady (and in Chicago at that) could close in late and finish second to Vahva.