MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Why the Giants Are Good Betting Odds as Underdogs)

After three short games on Monday, Major League Baseball is back in full force on Tuesday.

As teams get into the crosshairs of the postseason race, preconceived notions about certain teams and players start to form. However, I’m leaving out a few pitchers who started the season strong but have declined as the season progresses, and at a high cost.

Below you’ll find my betting analysis on all the games on the Tuesday, July 2 slate, including why I’m betting on underdogs like the Giants, Reds and Diamondbacks.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Selection: White Sox (+170)

The Guardians may be leading the AL Central, well ahead of the last-place White Sox, but I can’t trust Carlos Carrasco given his current condition and such a high price.

Carrasco is no longer able to get his throws moving and is fourth in pitching run value with an ERA of 5.27.

To put it simply, it’s a dead hit from the experienced right-hander who seems to be far from having a good pitch.

Selection: Pirates (-125)

Mitch Keller has stepped up his game after a slow start and I will be backing him and the Pirates as small favorites at home.

Keller is coming off a June in which he posted a 2.35 ERA after posting a 1.30 ERA in four starts in May and will have a significant advantage as a pitcher over weak-hitting pitcher Kyle Gibson.

Gibson has a 3.70 ERA but a 4.84 xERA, suggesting the right-hander could regress quickly.

Selection: Red Sox (-170)

Boston ranked fourth in OPS in June and should have no trouble overtaking the Marlins, who finished last in that metric and were the only team with an OPS below .600.

Selection: Mets (-140)

The Mets are the much better team when it comes to left-handed pitchers, which is a positive when both teams start with left-handed pitchers.

New York ranks fourth in OPS against left-handers, while the Nationals are 28th.

Tip: Reds (+165)

Luis Gil’s decline in performance was evident in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in less than five full innings. Given the erratic control and decreasing velocity, I’m going to discount Gil on that number again.

Selection: Astros (-105)

I’m betting on the Astros, who won the first game of this series earlier this week and are expected to win again on Tuesday.

Jose Berrios remains unreliable, with his xERA far exceeding his actual ERA (4.50 versus 3.38), suggesting he could see a downturn in the second half of the season.

I’m predicting the better team will be a slight underdog.

Selection: Giants (+155)

I’m betting on the big underdog Atlanta.

San Francisco will start Hayden Birdsong for the second time. Although he struggled in his first start, he showed considerable velocity (85th percentile in fastball velocity) and got swings and misses.

Against a free-swinging Braves team, Birdsong could get off to a strong start despite low expectations. In the meantime, I’m interested in taking out Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 1.70 ERA but a 3.98 xERA.

Selection: Gemini (-110)

With AL Cy Young Award candidate Tarik Skubal on the mound, the Tigers enjoy the benefit of the doubt, but their offense is not up to the task.

Detroit has a .228 batting average as a unit this season and ranks 28th in OPS for the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, Minnesota might be up to the task of edging Skubal, as they have the second-highest OPS against left-handers.

Selection: Padres (-105)

The Padres have hit their stride, were in the top 10 in OPS in June, and likely have a slight pitching advantage with Dylan Cease on the mound.

Cease has lowered his walk rate to a career low (less than three per nine) while maintaining a massive strikeout rate with more than 11 punchouts per nine innings.

Tip: Phillies (+105)

The Phillies will start junior Michael Mercado, who is likely making his second career start. While there are some concerns about his ability to pitch, I’m excited to get the Phillies at an underdog price against the Cubs, who are coming off a month in which they were in the bottom three in the big leagues in OPS.

Selection: Royals (-120)

Kansas City holds a fantastic home record of 30-16 at Kauffman Stadium.

With the match tied at 1-1, the Royals have the edge and the home-court advantage to make it in the series opener.

Tip: Rockies (+105)

Dallas Keuchel will pitch at hitter-friendly Coors Field, which could be problematic for the experienced left-hander.

Keuchel has struck out no more than 15% of batters over the last three full seasons and has a walk rate over 8%, which has translated into inflated ERAs that have consistently been above 5.00.

I can’t consider him a favorite, even if he’s backed by a talented Brewers lineup.

Selection: Mariners (-105)

The Mariners will have the better pitcher on the mound in George Kirby, who has excellent command and is excellent at limiting hard hits. The right-hander is in the 99th percentile in walk rate and in the 72nd percentile in hard hit rate.

I’m predicting Seattle will be a slight underdog at home.

Selection: Angels (-115)

In a duel between two weak teams, I’m betting on the favorite who has shown a bit more recently.

The Angels were league average in OPS in June, while the A’s were 28th.

Also, Jose Soriano (1.93 ERA in two starts in June) was better than Mitch Spence (5.40 ERA in five starts in June), which brings me to the Halos.

Selection: Diamondbacks (+160)

I’m betting on the underdog Diamondbacks to rely on a strong offense and eliminate Dodgers starter Bobby Miller.

Miller is a right-handed hitter who throws hard, but he hasn’t produced the right results yet, posting a 6.75 ERA in five starts, largely due to a nearly 14% walk rate.

Miller will face a strong D-backs lineup that had a batting average of just .269 in June (seventh in the major leagues) and a top-10 walk rate.

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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