Series preview: Mets begin decisive phase with Nationals series

After losing the series against the Astros, the New York Mets (40-41) travel to DC to face the Washington Nationals (39-44).

With the trade deadline approaching, this month will be critical to the Mets’ season. If David Stearns and other members of management are not convinced by a certain point that the Mets can compete in the postseason, they will have no choice but to cut off the money from this team by selling off expiring assets.

Although the Mets won’t face any top teams before the All-Star break, their schedule is by no means easy. For example, they face the Nationals in the upcoming series, separated by just one win. They will also face an impressive pitching staff that includes a surplus of young talent.

Let’s go into detail by previewing the pairings of these four games!

Monday, July 1, 2024: LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.67 ERA) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 3.60 ERA)

David Peterson has been successful in his five starts. However, like many of his teammates, he has trouble limiting walks. With a walk rate of 10.7 percent, he is very prone to getting into tight spots that are difficult to break out of against stronger lineups. One positive development for Peterson is his 52.4 percent ground ball rate, which can help him get double plays and other ground ball results.

MacKenzie Gore has had an encouraging season since being signed by the Padres a few years ago. He primarily offers a four-seamer, curveball, slider and changeup. His curveball has been his most effective pitch this year, with a whiff rate of 34.9 percent and an opponent average of .216. The Mets should try to maintain their contact above the ground, as Gore has a 16th percentile ground ball rate of 35.3 percent.

Photo by Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday, July 2, 2024: LHP Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.89 ERA) vs. LHP DJ Herz (1-2, 5.48 ERA)

Sean Manaea has been much better lately, although he still struggles with walks. His 21st percentile walk rate of 10.6 percent is problematic, as he, too, is not a prolific strikeout pitcher. As someone who relies primarily on finesse, it is imperative that he commands the strike zone. The Mets need to work on control as a team to make the postseason.

DJ Herz is in his rookie year and has started five games. He offers a four-seamer, changeup, cutter and slider, with his changeup being his most effective pitch. He uses the changeup 24.7 percent of the time and has a .231 opponent average and a 33.3 percent whiff rate. Overall, Herz has been effective at generating strikeouts and limiting walks, but remains vulnerable to hard contact. His 42.2 percent hard hit rate and 12.5 percent barrel rate could prove disastrous against a Mets offense that has seen the ball well of late.

Christian Scott. Mandatory Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday, July 3, 2024: TBD vs. LHP Mitchell Parker (5-4, 3.32 ERA)

Since Thomas B. was optioned Triple-A Syracuse has a gap at starting pitcher for Wednesday’s game. It is expected that either Christian Scott or José Butto will fill that role. As for the possibility of bullpen play, that’s unlikely due to the plethora of injuries and the lack of days off until the All-Star break. The Mets can’t go wrong with Scott or Buttó, as both have been effective in Triple-A Syracuse. Scott has a 2.12 ERA in his last four starts and Buttó has a 2.97 ERA in his last 13 excursions.

Mitchell Parker is having a solid rookie season with 14 starts. He throws a four-seamer, curveball, split finger and slider, with his split finger being the most effective. He uses it 17.6 percent of the time, and it has an opponent average of .222 and a whiff rate of 34.8 percent. While Parker doesn’t strike out a tonne He was adept at limiting walks with a walk rate of 5.6 percent.

Photo by David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, July 4, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.57 ERA) vs. RHP Jake Irvin (6-6, 3.03 ERA)

Jose Quintana has been inconsistent this season, but has improved recently. In his last 16 1/3 innings, he’s allowed just three runs with 21 strikeouts. That’s a huge improvement in the strikeout department for Quintana, who has a 22nd percentile strikeout rate of 18.1 percent this season. If he continues to show encouraging signs, he could be moved at the trade deadline to make room in the rotation for Buttó or Scott.

Jake Irvin has been excellent in 17 starts this year. He primarily offers a four-seamer, curveball, sinker and cutter, with his curveball being the most effective. He uses it at a 34.8 percent rate, a 27 percent whiff rate and an opponents average of .185. Irvin has been particularly adept at limiting walks, with a rate of just 5.9 percent. The Mets need to put the ball in play against Irvin, who controls the strike zone well.

Players in focus

Brandon Nimmo (NYC)

Brandon Nimmo has been swinging the bat well of late, posting a .362/.471/.741 batting average with 21 hits, six home runs, ten walks and 18 RBIs over his last 15 games. This season, Nimmo has consistently hit the ball hard, with a 49.3 percent hard hit rate in the 89th percentile and a 12.1 percent barrel rate in the 83rd percentile. He has brought tremendous value to the Mets with his long-term contract, offering a unique combination of a high on-base percentage and sneaky power numbers.

CJ Abrams (WSH)

CJ Abrams, another member of the Padres trade, has been excellent for the Nationals as of late. In his last 15 games, he has a batting average of .455/.545/.764 with 25 hits, three home runs, nine walks and 10 RBIs. His 5th percentile chase rate of 38.2 percent this season shows he’s a tough opponent, while his 95th percentile .296 xBA shows he can find holes in defense.