NHL contract grades: Jake Guentzel is a good fit for Lightning and a good value

The contract

Tampa Bay Lightning sign winger Jake Guentzel to a seven-year contract worth $9 million

Entering the offseason, the Lightning’s focus was heavily on impending UFA Steven Stamkos – would Tampa Bay extend their captain’s contract, for how much, and how would they create salary space to do so?

On the second day of the draft, Lightning GM Julien BreisBois went out and created over $11 million worth of space by trading away Mikhail Sergachev and Tanner Jeannot. But that space wasn’t for Stamkos, it was for one of the best free agents on the market.

Jake Guentzel is a real goal scorer. In his NHL career, he has broken the 40-goal mark twice and has scored over 35 goals in five of his eight seasons. The winger scores a lot of goals and puts them in the right places both in five-on-five situations and on the power play.

But what makes him such an elite offensive player is that he is not Only a goal scorer. Guentzel is a talented puck mover who can be relied upon to move into the offensive zone in a controlled manner to generate scoring opportunities or serve his teammates with primary passes. He is a reliable forechecker who can extend zone time and also help improve a team’s cycle play.

The central theme at the trade deadline was the Sidney Crosby effect: How much of Guentzel’s success over the years was due to playing many of his minutes with one of the best two-way centers in the game?

With the Hurricanes, he proved what a game-changer he is. In all situations, with a pace of 1.47 points per game and 25 points in 17 games. At five-on-five, Guentzel achieved an expected goals rate of 68 percent and helped his team to a 14-4 victory over their opponents.

All of that contributes to a plus-15 offensive rating that should make the Lightning an even more dangerous team. That’s worth about $10.5 million per year, so Tampa Bay has some value in this deal. Guentzel’s $9 million salary cap hit is also below Evolving Hockey’s seven-year projection of $9.7 million.

Of course, Guentzel’s value will be directly compared to Stamkos’, as he will likely essentially replace him (unless the Lightning have an ace up their sleeve to keep their captain and sign the best winger on the market). The sentiment is obviously different considering what Stamkos means to the franchise. But Guentzel brings much more value now and in the future considering the roughly five-year age difference between the two.

Stamkos has still pulled out all the stops this year, with 40 goals and 81 points. But there’s not the same power behind it at this point in his career. He hasn’t been as impactful at five-on-five and has suffered a bit more in his own zone (though Tampa Bay’s weak blue line may have contributed to that). The power play has also really boosted Stamkos’ point totals. Guentzel gives those point contributions a bit more sustainability, which should help the Lightning continue their dynasty. It’s a different kind of sustainability that takes into account play styles and even power play positioning. But it’s one Tampa Bay should welcome, as they need to pick up the pace at both ends of the ice. The Lightning need better firepower from their forward group compared to last year, and even more so now that there will be a bit less of the blue line with Sergachev’s departure. Guentzel helps accomplish that.

Is it risky to sign a nearly 30-year-old for seven years? Sure. There’s a reason free-agent contracts don’t usually age well — they usually cover the later years of the best players and beyond. But add that to the list of later problems the Lightning have accumulated. The focus is on competing while their core players, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy, are still elite. Guentzel should play a big role in that.

Contract note: A
Fit: A note

(Photo: Josh Lavallee / NHLI via Getty Images)