Study: Measuring Pat Freiermuth’s value through analytics

One candidate for a contract extension with the Pittsburgh Steelers is tight end Pat Freiermuth. My goal today is to take a statistical approach to see how Freiermuth has performed over the cap over the past three seasons compared to the current highest-paid players at that position.

First, I wanted to see where Freiermuth ranks compared to TEs with an average annual value of $8 million or more in Pro Football Focus (PFF) ratings by looking at their average receiving and run block ratings over the past three years, along with the total number of snaps during that time period as their point sizes:

Here we see some household names among the highest-paid TEs, along with the best grades. Of the 16 qualifiers, only three were above the median in both data points: George Kittle of the 49ers, Mark Andrews of the Ravens, and Dallas Goedert of the Eagles. Each of them has an average annual value of at least $14 million.

Freiermuth was slightly above average as a receiver with a grade of 73.9, which ranked seventh over the three-year period. That was, as expected, the better grade at the start of the study, compared to a below-average grade of 55.5 in run blocking, which ranked him 11th.

In the bottom right of the picture you can see some of the players he works with, stronger receivers than blockers who can also bring in a good salary: Travis Kelce ($17.1 million), TJ Hockenson ($16.5 million). Although run blocking is important, the overall picture underscores that the most lucrative contracts currently go to stronger receivers. This is no surprise.

Now we know what the contract cap for this position currently is and what Freiermuth’s second contract might look like.

To provide more context, here are Freiermuth’s grades and rankings by season among the 16 qualifiers:

2021: 74.8 receiving grade (8th), 53.2 running block grade (13th)

2022: 78.3 Receiving Grade (sixth), 59.6 Run Block Grade (eighth)

2023: 68.7 reception score (12th), 53.6 running block score (13th)

2022 was Freiermuth’s best results in both data points, with a positive trend in each category. Discouragingly, 2023 was his worst combined results in an injury-shortened year, contributing to the second-fewest total snaps during that time period. Poor quarterback play, especially last season, also had a lot to do with it, but that factor isn’t limited to Freiermuth, either.

After his first two years, Freiermuth is in rare company as one of only two TEs with over 60 catches in each season. Ideally, he will return to that level with Pittsburgh’s revamped quarterback room and new offensive coordinator who uses TEs frequently, and he also seems to be expected to play a larger role as the second receiver behind George Pickens.

If all goes well, a contract extension this summer could be easier for Freiermuth and hopefully bring him great success in 2024.

To go even deeper, here is a ranking of the grades from the first figure, including the receiving grades (RECRK), the run blocking grades (RBLKRK), the average of those two (AVGRK), and then using the total number of snaps as the decision criteria to get a final ranking (TOTRK) of the 16 qualified players along with their average annual values ​​(AYV) in parentheses:

Freiermuth comes in at eighth-best overall, slotting in between Chicago’s Cole Kmet ($12.5 million) and Hockenson ($16.5 million). The latter was a contract cap extreme for Freiermuth that our salary guru Dave Bryan laid out last summer, but he needed a stronger 2023 to achieve that goal, making a number closer to Kmet’s seem more likely.

On his way to that overall ranking, Freiermuth finished at the aforementioned seventh place in receiver class as well as 11th place in run blocking class. Considering that Freiermuth and the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts are the only players in the top ten still on their rookie contracts, a number between 12 and 14 seems fair from a statistical standpoint.

Next, I wanted to look at the total yards and average receiver ratings over the three-year period:

That view is less favorable for Freiermuth, as he is below the median in both data points. His 1,537 receiving yards over the last three seasons ranked 13th (fourth lowest), along with a receiver rating of 99.8, which ranked 11th.

This may seem discouraging at first glance, but the aforementioned poor quarterback play and Pittsburgh’s offense lacking a middle-of-the-court attack and scoring with former OC Matt Canada are hopefully problems of the past that will give us optimism and lead to better results in the future.

Here is the breakdown of statistics by year:

2021: 497 receiving yards (13th), 123.9 receiver rating (third)

2022: 732 receiving yards (6th), 78.1 receiver rating (15th)

2023: 308 receiving yards (14th), 97.5 receiver rating (10th)

The receiver ratings reflect my recent note about the struggles of the last two seasons, especially in 2022, which tends to be on the lower end of the results. Freiermuth’s rookie year was quite encouraging, however, with a strong third-place finish.

The new players at QB and OC, who have both shown better scoring results recently, give cause for optimism for 2024. Pittsburgh needs to improve especially in the red zone and seems to have the players to do it, including Freiermuth.

2022 was the best year in terms of receiving yards, ranking sixth this season. Otherwise, however, we see low totals in comparison, finishing in the bottom four in 2021 and 2023. The jump in year two was encouraging, but the fact that he only played 12 games in 2023 obviously capped Freiermuth’s 2023 season, where many (including himself) expected more.

For comparison, here are his snap totals by season:

2021: 684

2022: 743

2023: 474

Last season, Freiermuth’s playing time was by far the shortest of his three-year career, limited to just 12 games and 474 snaps. Injuries are a part of the game and have affected other players at the position this season, as Mark Andrews found out last year.

As I’ve alluded to before, despite the recent injury, I’m hoping Pittsburgh gets lucky in this regard and potentially gets the most bang for their buck, which will hopefully pay off during a potential contract extension.

Now here is a similar ranking as before, including receiving yards (YDSRK), receiver rating (RATRK), averaging the two (AVRRK), and then using the same tiebreaker for total snaps to determine the final ranking (TOTRK):

Things were much less favorable here, as Freiermuth finished 14th overall out of the 16 qualifiers. His yards ranking was the biggest offender, coming in 13th in that regard, while his rating ranking came in 11th. There are several factors I mentioned in the article that contributed to this, including many that were outside of his control.

When considering a potential contract extension, the overall data left a lot to be desired. While that’s true, Freiermuth could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the sweeping changes to Pittsburgh’s offense in 2024.

Personally, I think if a new deal comes together, an AYV of around $12-14 million would be fair given the circumstances and I hope the Steelers sign him as an integral piece that pays dividends in the future.