Tyler Toffoli is the best bet among this year’s secondary UFA forward options
This year’s class of unrestricted free agents will likely feature an unusually large number of talented wingers.
Barring any last-minute signings, Jake Guentzel and Sam Reinhart are the two top players expected to hit the market on July 1. Both are wingers. The same goes for Jonathan Marchessault, Teuvo Teravainen, Patrick Kane, Jeff Skinner and Vladimir Tarasenko.
Even players like Steven Stamkos and Elias Lindholm have spent a lot of time on the wing in recent seasons. In addition, there are quality mid-range options like Jake DeBrusk, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jonathan Drouin and Anthony Duclair.
No, there aren’t too many good centers entering unrestricted free agency this summer. This year’s goaltending lineup is even less impressive: Laurent Brossoit is the headliner by default. But there’s talent in abundance on the wings.
For that reason, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Tyler Toffoli sign a surprisingly reasonable contract on Canada Day. Not only will he likely be overshadowed by the other available wingers, but he’s been consistently undervalued over the past few seasons, starting with when he was last a UFA.
Toffoli, who just turned 32 in April, is coming off a year in which he scored 33 goals in 79 games for the New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets. Previously, Toffoli was the 2022-23 Calgary Flames’ leading scorer in 82 games and set career highs in goals (34) and points (73).
He was never the strongest skater or the most imposing physical presence – quite the opposite – but Toffoli has always demonstrated a top-notch hockey sense and the ability to shoot the puck like few others in the league. He surpassed career 250 goals and 500 points with the Devils in the 2023-24 season.
In his final four seasons, Toffoli scored 115 goals and 221 points in 287 games. And he did it all on the same contract, a four-year, $4.5 million AAV deal he signed with the Montreal Canadiens in the 2020 free agency period. It seemed like a shockingly reasonable deal at the time, especially compared to the seven-year, $5.5 million AAV deal Josh Anderson signed with Montreal a week earlier – and it turned out to be a steal.
After playing the first seven and a half years of his NHL career for one team, Toffoli was traded three times during the life of that contract. And yet, despite his new journeyman status, Toffoli continued to deliver like a star wherever he went. He scored more goals than any other Canadien in 2020-21, more than any other Flame in 2022-23, and would have led the Devils in scoring last year had he not been traded to Winnipeg.
Only 33 players in the entire National Hockey League scored more goals than Toffoli in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. His 67 goals in those two seasons put him on a par with Roope Hintz, Filip Forsberg and Mark Scheifele. That’s more than Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Dylan Larkin, Mika Zibanejad and even Guentzel managed in the same time period.
Despite this, Toffoli has been underperforming on the transfer market recently. The Flames were widely criticized for accepting what was perceived as a low offer at the time for Yegor Sharangovich and a 3rd contract for 2023 for Toffoli from New Jersey last summer. The Devils eventually traded Toffoli to the Jets for a 2nd contract for 2025 and a 3rd contract for 2024, which raised eyebrows when weaker players like Alex Wennberg, Anthony Mantha and Adam Henrique were traded for similar (or higher) prices.
Earlier this month, Daily FaceoffFrank Seravalli has released his latest ranking of the NHL’s top 75 free agents set to sign soon, and Toffoli is No. 16 on that list. AFP Analytics projects him to sign a four-year, $6 million AAV deal as a UFA this summer — $41 million less than Guentzel would receive if he signed his own proposed seven-year, $9.3 million AAV deal.
We’ll see what happens with Guentzel now that his rights have been traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he hasn’t officially agreed to a contract with his new team as of 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. With less than 24 hours until Guentzel can hit the open market, interested teams are still unable to fully focus on secondary options like Toffoli.
Even with younger players like DeBrusk, Duclair, Bertuzzi and even unsigned RFA Alex Nylander hitting the market, the experienced Toffoli could fall by the wayside with teams looking for longer-term solutions. Still, a player like Toffoli, who has never relied on his skating on offense, has a better chance of remaining effective as he slows down in his 30s.
We’ll see who gets Toffoli on July 1, but if the term and money are reasonable, there’s a good chance he’ll be a valuable player for the team that gets him. For Western Conference contenders looking for their answer to Zach Hyman, Toffoli could be just the ticket.
_____
Recently by Mike Gould
Post sponsored by bet365
All Disney songs added to the Country Bear Musical Jamboree
Melissa Etheridge, 63, shares the heartwarming reason she performs in prisons… and it has to do with the late singer Johnny Cash
Israel bombs Hamas military mastermind behind October 7 attack
About The Author
