Predicting the 2024 MLB All-Star Game rosters using WAR

Hey, who’s an All-Star?

The 2024 MLB season has reached its halfway point, with every team – except the New York Mets – having played at least 81 games in the 162-game season (the Mets play Game 81 later on Sunday). The “official” halfway point of the season is about two weeks away, with the 2024 MLB All-Star Game, and fan voting for each league’s starters is still open.

But what if MLB took the power away from the fans and set the starting lineups based on a single, comprehensive statistic? Here’s a projection for each league’s All-Star lineup based on players’ WAR at the halfway point of the 2024 season.

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WAR explained

According to baseball sabermetrics database FanGraphs, “WAR provides an estimate to answer the question: ‘If this player were injured and the team had to replace him with a free agent minor leaguer or AAAA player off the bench, how much value would the team lose?'”

In other words, WAR roughly indicates how many wins a player is worth compared to a replacement player. The higher the number, the more influential the player is. WAR can be negative to account for players whose performance negatively impacts their team’s success.

There are two main resources for a player’s WAR value, which use two different formulas for their calculations: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

This is what each league’s roster for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game would look like if MLB used WAR to select teams.

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American League All-Star Squad by WAR

FanGraphs WAR Formula (fWAR)

• Starting pitcher: Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox

• Catcher: Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

• First Baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

• Second Baseman: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

• Third Baseman: José Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

• Shortstop: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

• Outfielder: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Juan Soto, New York Yankees; Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

• Designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Baseball Reference WAR Formula (bWAR)

• Starting pitcher: Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels

• Catcher: Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

• First Baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

• Second Baseman: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Toronto Blue Jays

• Third Baseman: Josh Smith, Texas Rangers

• Shortstop: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

• Outfielder: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Juan Soto, New York Yankees; Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

• Designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

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National League All-Star Squad by WAR

FanGraphs WAR Formula (fWAR)

• Starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

• Catcher: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

• First Baseman: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

• Second Baseman: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

• Third Baseman: Joey Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers

• Shortstop: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

• Outfielder: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres; Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres; Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres

• Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Baseball Reference WAR Formula (bWAR)

• Starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies

• Catcher: Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants

• First Baseman: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

• Second Baseman: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

• Third Baseman: Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants

• Shortstop: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

• Outfielder: Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates; Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants; Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres

• Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

When is the MLB All-Star Game?

The 2024 MLB All-Star Game will be held on Tuesday, July 16, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB All-Star Roster Projections by Positional WAR Leaders