Israeli war talk with Hezbollah almost certainly a new attempt at deterrence | Hezbollah

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s warning that a decision on “all-out war” with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is imminent is almost certainly a new attempt at deterrence on his part – not least because both sides are aware of how devastating full-scale hostilities would be.

In fact, Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, is a more powerful opponent in Gaza than Hamas. It is estimated to have between 30,000 and 50,000 fighters and a similar number in reserve – plus 120,000 to 200,000 unguided rockets and missiles, as well as attack and reconnaissance drones.

Assaf Orion, a former brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces and its chief of strategy between 2010 and 2015, estimates that Hezbollah has “an arsenal ten times larger than Hamas” and suggests that any conflict would be an order of magnitude larger than the hostilities in Gaza after October 7.

In his speech on Tuesday, Katz responded to a nine-minute video of drone footage released by Hezbollah showing details of military and residential sites in the Israeli port of Haifa, 40 to 50 kilometers from the border. At least parts of this footage were taken “in the last 72 hours,” according to an Israeli assessment based on the presence of a specific Israeli military ship at the city’s naval base.

Drone surveillance footage is not a lethal military tool in and of itself, but the film’s tone of “we know where you live” was designed to unsettle the population of northern Israel and suggest that Hezbollah might launch a barrage of attacks in the hope of overwhelming Israel’s short- and medium-range Iron Dome and David’s Sling air defense systems.

One of the main concerns is the risk of a miscalculation leading to a sudden conflict. Hezbollah and Israel have been trading blows since Hamas began its onslaught eight months ago, and Hezbollah has insisted it will not stop until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But as the campaign in the south enters what Israeli forces say is its final phase, violence in the north has increased as has the rhetoric.

Last week, an airstrike killed Taleb Sami Abdallah, the highest-ranking Hezbollah commander killed by Israel since last October. The Lebanese militant group responded by firing 215 rockets into northern Israel last Wednesday and another 100 the following day, the heaviest shelling in eight months. While there were no reports of casualties, two Israeli soldiers were injured.

The last open war between the two countries in 2006 escalated after an incident in which Hezbollah guerrillas killed three Israeli soldiers, wounded two others and captured two others. The incident was quickly interpreted by Israel as an act of war. A devastating airstrike on Lebanon failed to stop Hezbollah’s rocket attacks, and a brief ground offensive followed that lasted a month.

An estimated 155,000 civilians have already been displaced on both sides of the border. Israel evacuated 60,000 citizens living within a 5km radius, while another 20,000 voluntarily left their homes further away and another 75,000 were forced to leave villages in southern Lebanon as the fighting continues.

Sarit Zehavi, founder of Alma, an educational center that focuses on the security of Israel’s northern border, said the current situation was untenable: “There is already a second front. Galilee (in northern Israel) is attacked daily by drones, rockets and missiles. The average is currently 90 attacks per week. There is already a low-level war going on up there. The question is how to resolve it – whether through a full-scale war or some kind of ceasefire.”

But Orion warns that an attempt at a military solution would require a combination of airstrikes and ground attacks that would require “the entire available forces of the Israeli Defense Forces,” allowing for a limited presence in Gaza and a security presence in the West Bank. A rapid invasion would also place a heavy burden on Israeli soldiers, who are exhausted by eight months of long and bloody fighting in the south.

Orion argues that Hezbollah’s stockpile of missiles and drones in Haifa and the north of the country could cause “dozens or hundreds of destructions.” “Depending on how the population reacts, there could be hundreds of casualties” and threaten Israeli infrastructure, especially given that the Lebanese group is believed to have up to 400 guided missiles.

This is grim speculation, and any conflict would immediately trigger a diplomatic crisis and raise questions about whether Iran would seek to support Hezbollah, raising the specter of a broader conflict in the Middle East that the United States is desperate to prevent.

Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at the Chatham House think tank, says the combination of diplomatic pressure and military reality is ultimately holding both sides back. “Both Israel and Hezbollah routinely prepare for possible escalations. However, neither side currently benefits from a full-scale war.”