US and Europe warn Lebanese Hezbollah to reduce its attacks on Israel and withdraw from the larger Middle East war

WASHINGTON: US, European and Arab mediators are pushing to prevent growing cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon from escalating into a broader war in the Middle East that the world has feared for months.

There is little hope of an imminent ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip that would curb attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned militias. Against this backdrop, American and European politicians are warning Hezbollah, which is far stronger than Hamas but is seen as overconfident, against taking on Israel’s military might, current and former diplomats say.

They warn that the group should not count on the United States or anyone else being able to stop the Israeli leadership if it decides to implement combat-ready plans for an offensive in Lebanon. And Hezbollah should not count on its fighters being able to deal with whatever may come next.

On both sides of the Lebanese border, escalating attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the region’s best-armed forces, appeared to at least level off last week. While attacks are still occurring daily in the border region, the slight shift offers hope of easing the immediate fears that prompted the U.S. to send an amphibious assault ship with a naval expeditionary force to join other warships in the region and prevent a larger conflict.

It is not clear whether Israel or Hezbollah decided to scale back their attacks to avoid an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, said Gerald Feierstein, a former senior U.S. diplomat in the Middle East. Despite the lull in hostilities over the past week, “it seems like the Israelis are still bracing themselves for the fact that there is going to be a conflict … a conflict of a very different magnitude,” he said.

The message to Hezbollah is: “Don’t think you are as capable as you think you are,” he said.

A day after Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7 sparked the war in Gaza, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel and vowed to continue until a ceasefire is reached. Israel has hit back, and the violence has displaced tens of thousands of civilians from both countries. The attacks have intensified this month after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah responded with some of its heaviest rocket barrages.

UN humanitarian envoy Martin Griffiths used the word “apocalyptic” to describe the war that could result. Both Israel and Hezbollah, the dominant force in politically divided Lebanon, have the power to inflict heavy casualties.

“Such a war would be a disaster for Lebanon,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon. “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily develop into a regional war, with terrible consequences for the Middle East.”

Gallant replied: “We are working closely together to reach an agreement, but we also need to discuss preparedness for every possible scenario.”

Analysts assume that other militias in the region allied with Iran would react far more violently than they did to Hamas. Some experts also warn that ideologically motivated militias could flood into the region and join the terrorist militia. The Europeans fear destabilizing refugee flows.

While Iran, which is busy with a political transition process at home, is currently showing no signs of wanting war, it considers Hezbollah – far more important than Hamas – to be its most strategically important partner in the region and could be drawn into a war.

“If it looks like things are seriously going wrong for the Israelis, the US will of course intervene,” said Feierstein. “I don’t think they see any alternative to that.”

Although the United States helped Israel fend off an attack by Iranian missiles and drones in April, it would probably not do as well defending Israel against major Hezbollah attacks, said Army Chief of Staff Brown. It would be harder to fend off the shorter-range rockets that Hezbollah regularly fires across the border, he said.

The Israeli army is overwhelmed after a nearly nine-month war in Gaza, and Hezbollah has an estimated arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles with which to strike anywhere in Israel. Israeli leaders, meanwhile, have vowed that if a full-scale war breaks out in Lebanon, they will unleash scenes of devastation like those in Gaza.

White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s point man on tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, has so far failed to persuade either side to limit the attacks.

In addition to the Qataris and Egyptians, the French, who as Lebanon’s former colonial power have close ties to Lebanon, and other Europeans are also acting as mediators.

White House officials have blamed Hezbollah for escalating tensions and said it supports Israel’s right to self-defense. The Biden administration has also told Israelis that opening a second front is not in their interest, a point Gallant emphasized during recent talks in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Austin, CIA Director William Burns, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Hochstein and others.

“We will continue to help Israel defend itself; that will not change,” said John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman. “But as far as a hypothetical case goes – particularly with regard to the northern boundary line … – we do not want to open a second front and want to see if we can resolve the tensions there through diplomatic processes.”

However, White House officials do not rule out the possibility of a second front in the Middle East conflict.

In talks with Israeli and Lebanese politicians and other regional stakeholders, there is agreement that “a major escalation is in no one’s interest,” a senior Biden administration official said.

The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly on the White House deliberations and spoke on condition of anonymity, was annoyed by the “supposed logic” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who argued that Israel would see an end to Hezbollah attacks through a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

However, the official also acknowledged that an elusive ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip would go a long way toward easing tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Biden unveiled a three-phase agreement four weeks ago that would lead to an extended ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but negotiations between Israel and Hamas appear to have stalled. A senior Biden administration official said Saturday that the U.S. had presented new language to mediators in Egypt and Qatar to restart negotiations. The official spoke on condition of anonymity about a plan that the White House has not yet publicly announced.

Without a ceasefire, there is still hope that Israeli plans to halt heavy fighting in the southern city of Rafah and elsewhere in the Gaza Strip could persuade Hezbollah to limit its rocket fire at Israel, says Randa Slim of the Middle East Institute.

But without a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, any temporary calm on the Lebanese-Israeli border “is not enough,” Slim said.

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Associated Press writers Abby Sewell in Beirut, Josef Federman in Jerusalem, and Matthew Lee, Tara Copp, Lolita C. Baldor and Aamer Madhani contributed to this report.