Russia’s deadliest jets are parked 100 miles from Ukraine

The Voronezh-Malshevo air base in southern Russia, 160 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, is possibly Russia’s most important – and vulnerable – target.

But apparently it is no longer on Ukraine’s target list for the time being.

From this base, Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers of the 47th Guards Bomber Regiment of the Russian Air Force fly daily missions, dropping powerful glide bombs on Ukrainian troops and civilians from a distance of 40 kilometers or more.

The carnage is staggering. “It takes a Sukhoi jet just a few minutes to reach the takeoff point near the border and then return to base,” said the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight. “The large number of jets stationed at the airfield allows for the simultaneous use of bombs, meaning that several targets on Ukrainian territory can be attacked simultaneously.”

The regiment’s dozens of Sukhoi Su-34s – which probably make up about half of Russia’s active fleet of these twin-engine supersonic fighter-bombers – are regularly parked outside on the tarmac of the recently renovated base.

They are within range of Ukraine’s best deep-strike weapon – the US-made Army Tactical Missile System missiles. “Ukraine could potentially disable the entire operational fleet stationed there if allowed to launch such an attack,” Frontelligence Insight noted.

But President Joe Biden’s administration has not yet given the Ukrainian government permission to target the ATACMS at Voronezh-Malshevo. And so the Su-34 bombers in Voronezh-Malshevo can currently bomb with almost no impunity – they drop a significant portion of the roughly 100 glide bombs that the Russians drop on Ukrainian positions and cities every day, killing soldiers and civilians alike.

To be clear, the Ukrainian armed forces have other options to stop the glider bombers. However, so far, these have not worked against the aircraft from Voronezh-Malshevo.

One option is to shoot down the bombers before they drop their munitions. The problem is that the Ukrainian Air Force does not have enough of its best US-made Patriot air defense batteries to protect major cities – let alone extend that protection close enough to the border to intercept the Sukhois of the 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment.

Ukraine has only five Patriot batteries deployed or on the way. One of them protects Kyiv. Others appear to protect Odessa and Kharkiv. Two more batteries, which Germany and the US have promised but have not yet delivered, could protect Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih.

Unless Ukraine’s allies send more Patriot batteries, it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will risk deploying such a battery on the northern border between Voronezh-Malshevo and Kharkiv.

The last time the Ukrainian Air Force was flying a mobile Patriot battery, it was spotted by a Russian drone – and a Russian missile blew up two of its truck-mounted launchers. “Attempting to attack these jets (from Voronezh-Malshevo) with a Patriot battery in a drone-saturated environment carries significant risks,” Frontelligence Insight stressed.

It would be equally risky for the Ukrainian Air Force to use its future fleet of former European F-16 fighter jets against the glide bombers. “Intercepting the glide bombing attacks on a regular basis will be a major challenge,” wrote analyst Justin Bronk in a new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

The main problem is Russia’s ground-based air defenses, which make it extremely dangerous for Ukrainian fighter jets to fly at high altitudes virtually anywhere in Ukraine – but especially within about 160 kilometers of the front line, where they are within range of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries.

“Near the front lines, Ukrainian pilots have to fly them at very low altitudes to avoid detection and shooting down,” Bronk wrote. “At such low altitudes, the missiles (from the F-16) launch into dense air with high drag and must climb against gravity to reach the altitude at which their targets are located.” This limits their range.

Ukraine could target long-range drones at Voronezh-Malshevo at any time. Recent drone attacks on two other Su-34 bases – Kuschevka and Morozovsk, both in Russia about 160 kilometers from the Eastern Front – apparently damaged or destroyed several Su-34s.

For some reason, Voronezh-Malshevo has not been heavily bombed by drones so far. It is possible that the same dense Russian air defenses that endanger the F-16s also prevent drones from reaching the Sukhoi base.

This brings us back to the ATACMS, which are probably still the best weapon to hit Voronezh-Malshevo and mitigate Russia’s brutal glide-bombing attack. But Ukraine is unlikely to jeopardize its future supplies of these missiles by using them against targets that the US does not approve in advance.

So Ukrainians are waiting for permission, which they hope will be given soon. “It is painful to see these missiles flying over our heads towards Kharkiv and to wonder if this time our home would be destroyed,” said a Ukrainian drone commander. The Washington Post.

Sources:

1. Frontelligence Insight: https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/impact-and-defense-mitigating-the

2. Justin Bronk: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/damaged-su-57-emphasises-vulnerability-russian-airbases-near-ukraine

3. The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/01/us-ukraine-weapons-kharkiv-biden/