Eight weeks after the first Grande Partenza of the season, the second is approaching, as Italy hosts the start of the second Grand Tour of the year.
After opening the Giro d’Italia in Piedmont, the peloton headed to Tuscany for the first stage of the Tour de France, the hilly 206km cross-country race across the Apennines from Florence to Rimini on Saturday.
As with the Giro, the start here is for the punchers and general classification contenders, this time with seven classified climbs on the route and a flat 15km ride to the finish line in the seaside resort.
Before the stage winner and thus the first leader of the 2024 Tour is determined, the polka dot jersey is still up for grabs. The maximum of 23 points available means a hefty reward for the first breakaway group of the race, but the battle for the early lead in this competition should be aperitif to what develops later.
Rimini, on the Adriatic Sea and the gateway to the flat Po Valley, may not boast any star racers, unlike the famous Florentine Gino Bartali. And despite the sprint-friendly geography (Arnaud Démare won a Giro stage there four years ago), it is likely that a rider with skills closer to Giro and Tour winner Bartali than the Frenchman will raise his arms in victory on Saturday afternoon.
The sprinters, the general classification riders and the punchers
But who? The preparations for the start of this year’s Tour seemed to be marked more by pessimism and caution on the part of the big names in the peloton than by big announcements of their ambitions.
With so many climbs on the opening day, including three in the final 50km, the consensus is that pure sprinters like Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) and Fabio Jakobsen (DSM-Firmenich PostNL) have virtually no chance of success. Defending green jersey winner Philipsen’s statement on Thursday that he could “start without stress” reinforced this.
Even the hopes of the more versatile contenders – Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease A Bike) and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny) – are marginal. Van Aert, who has only completed a handful of days of racing since his crash in the spring classics, has already played down his chances, saying: “I have never started the Tour de France in such bad shape.”
His eternal rival Van der Poel compared the first two stages to the same days at last year’s race, saying: “It looks like it’s going to be a bit too hard again,” adding: “It depends… what the other teams want to do.”
He noted that he probably has little chance of personal success on this Tour, as even the “easier stages” cover over 3,000 meters of elevation. And the number on the first stage? 3,800…
Pedersen appeared optimistic at Lidl-Trek’s press conference before the race the day before, but even his statements were marked by caution, as his chances also depend on the mercy of other teams. Well, one in particular.
“I know we’re going to be at the limit, if not over it, so everything has to go in our favor. But it would also be stupid to just sit down and say, ‘OK, I can’t do it,'” he said.
“If I have to get a result, then it really depends on how all the teams want to ride the last climb. So it’s open, it’s in their hands whether I can do it or not. Especially the UAE – if they want to win on the first day and go full throttle from the bottom to the top, then I don’t know – I’m not going to survive.”
Unsurprisingly, all eyes are on UAE Team Emirates ahead of Stage 1. The sprint specialists may not make it to the finish line simply because they are not suited to this stage, while reigning race champion Jonas Vingegaard’s first day back in the saddle could well suggest he can once again challenge for the yellow jersey.
“From here on, everything is a bonus,” he said on Thursday. “Maybe at the beginning of the race we will have to fight to hold on and later in the race we will find our normal level. We will find out in the next few days.”
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) – overall and stage winner at the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month – are other names to keep an eye on, although both showed signs of weakness in the warm-up race.
This brings us to Tadej Pogačar, the man with the strongest support team in the race, the man who dominated the Giro a month ago and who – apart from a reportedly very mild COVID-19 infection – has suffered no lapses or setbacks in his Tour preparation.
He and his team UAE Team Emirates scouted the stage earlier this week and spectators are already expecting him to try to put some distance between himself and the rusty Vingegaard as quickly as possible.
Of course there are other names in the running, but the thought of a thrilling battle between the biggest names in the general classification on the starting line on the opening day is hard to resist. Besides the ‘big four’, names like Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla) spring to mind.
Otherwise, there are plenty of punchers in the race, whether from the breakaway or from one of the countless attacks that will fly over those late hills. Look out for established names who have numerous Tour stage wins in their cumulative palmarès, including Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla), Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious) and Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost).
Other riders to keep an eye on include the Israel-Premier Tech duo, La Flèche Wallonne winner Stephen Williams and Dauphiné podium finisher Derek Gee, one of the year’s breakout riders Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny), Arkéa-B&B Hotels hopeful Kévin Vauquelin and newly crowned Spanish champion Alex Aranburu (Movistar).
The route
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This group of general classification riders, outsiders, punchers and hopefuls will have to contend with much more than the rapid acceleration of their rivals – and high temperatures of up to 30°C – on Stage 1.
The opening stage of the Tour is comparable to a major one-day classic, just like any other race day. There are 3,800 metres of elevation gain between Strade Bianche (3,670) and Liège-Bastogne-Liège (4,270). It’s anything but an easy start to the Tour, and it’s no surprise that the race’s sprinters have already largely written off their chances of success.
The flat start of the race takes the peloton from the Parco delle Cascine along the River Arno, past the historic sights of central Florence and over the famous Ponte Vecchio, part of a flat 30km route to the first climb of the day.
The second category Col de Valico Tre Faggi (12.5 km at 5.1%) is the first difficulty of the day and reaches its peak at 930 meters after 49.7 km. After a 25 km descent into the Emilia-Romagna region, the race faces the second climb, the third category Côte des Forche (2.5 km at 6.2%) and shortly afterwards the intermediate sprint in Santa Sofia.
Next up is the second longest climb of the day, the third category Côte de Carnaio (10.5km at 4.6%), before another long descent – this time 30km – to another second category test, the Côte de Barbotto (5.8km at 7.6%).
From there, the riders enter the province of Rimini and the final 60 km are the second category Côte de San Leo (4.6 km at 7.7%) and the third category Côte de Montemaggio (4.2 km at 6.6%).
The last climb of the day, which takes place via a short excursion through the micro-enclave of San Marino, is aptly named Côte de San Marino (7.1 km at 4.8%).
The gradients are not the steepest of the day and the climb is not the longest, but since the legs have already done a lot of climbing, this could well be the winner of the first stage and the first yellow jersey of the 2024 Tour, even though there is still a 10 km descent and a 15 km flat ride to Rimini ahead of us.
Phase 1 Sprints
- Intermediate sprint, km 86.6
Stage 1 Mountains
- Col de Valico Tre Faggi (12.5 km with 5.1%), cat. 2, km 49.7
- Côte des Forche (2.5 km with 6.2%), cat. 3, km 77.8
- Côte de Carnaio (10.5 km with 4.6%), cat. 3, km 98.3
- Côte de Barbotto (5.8 km with 7.6%), cat. 2, km 135.6
- Côte de San Leo (4.6 km with 7.7%), cat. 2, km 157.3
- Côte de Montemaggio (4.2 km with 6.6%), cat. 3, km 167.1
- Côte de San Marino (7.1 km with 4.8%), cat. 3, km 179.7
