Analysts: Russian attack apparently reflects Putin’s war plans

• Russia is on the offensive, but is not making its full contribution to this attack, which reflects its own plans.
• Putin’s strategy focuses on attrition and limiting Ukraine’s options for attack.
• ISW experts warn that delays in Western aid could lead to the collapse of Ukraine and a Russian victory.

Russian forces are advancing along an axis between Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka, but are not using their full weight. War analysts say the tactic appears to reflect Russian President Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine, announced earlier this month.

“The Russian armed forces have so far committed only limited forces to this operation, suggesting that the Russian armed forces continue to prefer gradual progress through consistent, attritional attacks over operationally significant successes through rapid maneuvers,” analysts at the Institute of the Study of War estimate.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 7, Putin said that there was no need to act quickly, explaining that Russian forces could gradually “push” Ukrainians out of the areas Moscow wants to control.

Putin suspected that the gradual advances of the Russian armed forces would enable them to achieve the Kremlin’s goals by preventing Ukraine from launching effective counteroffensives.

Slow, steady and laborious operations toward Toretsk are a goal of Russian forces, as they believe they will prevent Ukraine from gathering vital resources and personnel, and will deplete what it already has. And that, ISW experts say, may be more important than capturing territory.

Analysts at Washington-based ISW predict that Russia’s approach, aimed at “winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces,” could take months or years. At the forum this month, Putin said he was confident that plans to achieve gradual successes will bear fruit.

ISW analysts advise Western partner countries to equip the Ukrainian military with the resources it needs to “liberate large parts of occupied Ukraine and challenge Putin’s belief that he can gradually subjugate Ukraine.”

As partners stepped up their support, Ukraine has been able to overcome some of the dangerous bottlenecks it previously faced. However, the pace at which the country is currently receiving aid is limited, reinforcing Putin’s strategy of holding out longer than Ukraine.

ISW experts noted that an end to Western aid to Ukraine could lead to a complete collapse of its front line and a comprehensive victory for Russia.

“Ukraine should challenge the initiative as soon as possible, as the Russian armed forces derive a number of advantages from the initiative, including the opportunity to pursue a strategy of war of attrition,” the analysts concluded.