Series preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins

The Mariners are finally returning home after a long and disappointing road trip. When they left Seattle a week and a half ago, they were 8.5 games ahead in the AL West – and that lead expanded to 10 games after their win in the first game of their road trip in Cleveland. Their division lead has shrunk to 4.5 games thanks to their 3-7 performance over the last 10 games and the Astros’ simultaneous rise up the standings. That makes this home game against some of the AL’s toughest teams all the more important. Not only will the M’s face tough playoff-caliber competition, they’re suddenly forced to defend their division lead.

The Twins have been somewhat overshadowed by the Guardians’ excellent play and the Royals’ surprising season, but they have overcome a pretty rocky start to the season and established themselves as one of the better teams in the American League. That shouldn’t be too surprising, given that they won the division last year and most of their roster has been carried over into this year, but they are also seven games behind Cleveland, which gives the impression of playing in the second division. Make no mistake, these Twins are a dangerous ballclub.

If you’re particularly skeptical about the Mariners’ chances of defending their division lead, this series against Minnesota is even more important; should the Astros overtake Seattle in the standings, the Twins will be one of the main challengers for a Wild Card spot. Minnesota has already won three of four head-to-head matches — that’s the first tiebreaker in the standings — so the Mariners would need to get a sweep in this series to flip that tiebreaker in the unlikely event that they end up with the same score in the Wild Card standings at the end of the season.

The last time these two teams faced off, both Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton were on the injured list. Both have since returned, though Lewis has had a much bigger impact in the limited time he’s had since recovering from a hamstring injury he suffered on Opening Day. Since coming off the injured list on June 4, Lewis has hit nine home runs and posted a .286/.356/.688 batting average in 20 games. Not to mention, Buxton has hit much better this month after struggling for the first two months of the season; he’s posted a .289/.337/.526 batting average this month. Looking at their monthly splits, it seems like every hitter in the Twins’ lineup is hitting up a gear in June; Carlos Santana (189 wRC+ in June), Carlos Correa (185), Jose Miranda (172) and Willi Castro (163) are all enjoying their best production months.

Probable pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer video

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

From an earlier series preview:

Bailey Ober uses his gigantic 6’1″ frame to generate a 96th percentile extension on all of his throws. This helps greatly enhance his otherwise unremarkable speed game and creates a unique launch point simply because of the height he throws the ball from. He has a fairly standard three-quarter arm angle, but because he’s so tall, weird things happen to the motion of his throws and their approach angle as they cross the plate. This is why his fastball has one of the most extreme batted ball profiles in baseball – batters almost never put it in play on the ground, and the throw generates an extremely high popup rate. His best throw is his changeup, and he’s extremely adept at all four throws in his arsenal.

In his last game against the Mariners, Ober allowed two runs on three hits in five innings.

From an earlier series preview:

Pablo López improved his strikeout rate by nearly six points last year thanks to a brand new sweeper he added to his repertoire when he came to the Twins in the (other) big Luis Arraez trade a few offseasons ago. This new pitch gave him a consistent breaking ball to go with his already excellent changeup. With those two and more secondaries in his bag, he boosted his potential from a solid starter to a true top-tier player. This year, despite peripherals looking better than last season, his results have been a little unfortunate. His ERA is almost a run higher than his FIP due to some uncharacteristic issues with runners on base.

In his last start against the Mariners, López recorded ten strikeouts and allowed just one run on four hits in 6.1 innings.

Joe Ryan has taken a big step forward this year after flirting with long-term success over the past few years. His fastball is an excellent pitch with premium carry at the top of the zone that produces both whiffs and weak contact. He’s struggled to find a consistent secondary pitch to keep batters off his heater and has experimented with two different sliders over the past few years, a harder gyro and a slower sweeper. The real key to his breakout has been a splitter to complement his four-seamer and give him a real weapon to keep left-handed batters at bay. He’s added five miles per hour to his offspeed pitch this year and that’s made him one of the best splitters in baseball.

The big picture:

Following their victory over the Orioles last weekend, the Astros won two games against the Rockies earlier this week to extend their winning streak to seven games. This weekend they travel to New York to face the red-hot Mets. While Houston is climbing the standings, the Rangers continue to falter. They were swept by the Brewers earlier this week and lost the first game of a big four-game series in Baltimore yesterday. Speaking of the Orioles, they overtook the Yankees to take the lead in the AL East, although that was largely due to New York’s own problems. The Yanks have won just three of their last 13 games and lost the first game of their four-game series to the Blue Jays yesterday.