Representatives of NASA and other international organizations recently completed a simulated test to test their ability to respond to a hypothetical asteroid that may hit Earth in 2038.
The simulation exercise went as planned and was largely considered a success by those involved. However, several media outlets misreported what happened, either making it seem like the impact scenario was real or suggesting that we are worryingly ill-equipped to deal with it – neither of which is true.
Between April 2 and 3, nearly 100 experts from more than 25 organizations in the United States and abroad – including NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Department of State’s Office of Space Affairs – met at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, to participate in the Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.
The event, where team members informally discussed possible responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact, was the fifth and largest of its kind, following similar meetings in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2022, according to Live Science’s sister site. Space.com reported.
“The impact of a large asteroid may be the only natural disaster that humanity can technologically predict years in advance and take steps to prevent,” Lindley Johnsonthe senior program manager of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, said in a Statement on the eventSimulating such a scenario could help experts gain experience in dealing with such situations and identify knowledge gaps in current protocols that need to be filled in the future, he added.
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On 20 June, leading members of the exercise team shared and discussed the Results of the latest simulation in a Online press conferenceDuring this event, they also presented to the public for the first time the hypothetical scenario used in this year’s exercise.
In the new hypothetical scenario, astronomers discover a large asteroid that has a 72% chance of hitting Earth in 14 years – on July 12, 2038. More precise information about this fictional asteroid is not immediately available, but its trajectory could put it on a collision course with major cities such as Dallas, Washington, DC, Madrid and Algiers, Algeria. The size of the space rock is uncertain, so any potential impact could cost between 1,000 and 10 million lives.
Some news agencies, including The Times of India And NDTV Newstook this scenario out of context when reporting on the briefing. They used misleading headlines that suggested that the threat presented in the exercise was real and that NASA had “warned” of the impending danger.
Other outlets – including the daily mail And The registry – said the exercise showed that we are ill-prepared for this scenario in real life. However, these reports are also inaccurate.
Threat assessment
This year’s simulation exercise presented officials gathered in Maryland with a unique and “particularly challenging” scenario, Johnson said.
Although the experts had more time to the potential impact than in previous attempts, they had less information than ever about the hypothetical incoming space rock. For example, they were told that it could be between 60 and 800 meters wide. The composition of the asteroid, which affects its destructive power, was also unclear.
To make matters worse, the scenario assumed that the asteroid would disappear behind the Sun for seven months shortly after its discovery, meaning experts had to make plans without really knowing what would happen.
The team considered three options: first, wait for the asteroid to resurface to make further observations; second, fly a spacecraft past the asteroid and learn more about it; and third, launch a mission to fly alongside the space rock to gather as much information about it as possible.
The consensus was that it would be better to send a spacecraft to learn more about the asteroid than to wait and see what happens or to launch a much more expensive rendezvous mission in the short term. However, officials also expressed concerns about our ability to do so, especially given how quickly such a mission would need to be organized and whether politicians would approve funding (up to $400 million) without further clarification of the situation. As a result, 19% of participants said they did not think we would be ready to plan and conduct such a mission in this scenario.
Related: Could scientists stop a “planet-killing” asteroid from hitting Earth?
Some media outlets took advantage of this uncertainty, claiming that these potential hurdles would completely undermine our ability to deal with the asteroid. In fact, however, most experts believed that such a mission was feasible.
Since the simulation exercise did not simulate anything beyond the first decision-making phase after the discovery of the asteroid, it is impossible to predict what would have happened afterward. Therefore, the event cannot be described as a failure, as several media outlets did.
Are we really ready?
In reality, we have never been in a better position to deal with scenarios like the one in the simulation exercise, NASA officials wrote.
This is partly due to the recent success of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully redirected And changed the shape of the asteroid Dimorphos after ram a spaceship into on September 26, 2022. While not a perfect method of stopping a potentially deadly asteroid from hitting Earth (Dimorphos posed no threat to our planet), the test demonstrated for the first time that the asteroid deflection technique, called a “kinetic impactor,” is a viable way to protect our planet.
NASA is also planning to launch the Near-earth object measurement – a space telescope dedicated to searching for new near-Earth asteroids until the summer of 2028. Once in orbit, the telescope will improve our ability to detect dangerous space rocks, including those that are close to the bright light of the sun, the researchers wrote.
Continuing such simulations will also help us to better prepare for a possible asteroid impact. For example, around 90% of participants in the recent exercise said they felt better prepared for the challenges after completing the exercise.
