Crises can occur at any time. How can the government be prepared for them?

Much is said and much is expected about the first 100 days of a new administration, but the assumptions made about those days often ignore any surprises. Recent history has shown that any new cabinet must be ready to lead the country through a crisis at a moment’s notice. My colleagues and I have some thoughts on that. We are emergency planners who can be found before, during and after the crisis, but we don’t always know about them. I have been vocal about the fact that plans, planners and planning for emergencies have been in place across the public service for decades and that it is time to bring them out from behind the scenes.

I’m completely independent of government, but the people I spend most of my time with work either in local government or in central government ministries, preparing us for everything from building fires and floods to cyberattacks and volcanic ash clouds. And these crises can hit as soon as the polls close.

On the day Boris Johnson was elected prime minister, British emergency planners were already busy adding pandemic planning meetings to government calendars as news from China became increasingly worrying. Theresa May was re-elected prime minister in the 2017 election six days before a fire at Grenfell Tower in London and five days after a terrorist attack in London’s Borough Market. Shortly after the final details of a coalition government were being worked out in 2010, a plane carrying members of several nationalities, including two Britons, crashed in Libya. Tony Blair’s time as prime minister was peppered with major disasters known in the civil service as the “four Fs”: foot-and-mouth, fire and fuel strikes, floods; and the fourth “F” was the swear words uttered at 10 Downing Street when another crisis broke out.

One of the additional dangers of a crisis occurring early in a term is that neither new ministers nor their advisers have had time to attend the disaster training offered by the Cabinet Office. So I would strongly advise crisis preparation from day one. Below are my suggestions for what that preparation might look like.

What is the worst that could happen?

It is crucial that ministers and their advisers understand the link between emergency response and climate change. More floods, more fires, more storms and major disruption are on the way. Equally crucial, many of our risks nationally are linked to disruptions to gas, water and electricity. But research suggests there are high expectations about how quickly help will arrive and what benefits might accrue from taking precautions such as registering as a vulnerable person with energy suppliers. In reality, disruption will inevitably occur and it could cause significant damage.

Domino effects must also be considered. Volcanic ash, for example, can quickly lead to a supply chain disaster if flights are disrupted. Emergency planners must be able to inform you of the worst-case scenario and not limit themselves to “just good news for the minister.”

“Emergency planners need to be able to tell you the worst-case scenario and not just ‘good news for the minister’.”

Advisers and ministers need to be familiar with the terminology. The field of emergency planning and response is full of technical terms and jargon, which is not always helpful. But it is helpful to understand key terms such as ‘local resilience forum’ – the geographically distributed way we bring all the responders together. The role of JESIP – Joint Emergency Service Interoperability Programme – is also good to know. If responders use technical jargon, ask them for clarification.

Don’t expect too much from the COBR myth – trust the officials around you, but it’s not a James Bond movie. There are no screens with all the bad guys or cool gadgets. However, if your advisers at COBR say something is a very bad idea, listen to them; they know the bear traps. And try to learn a lot more about the toll your data requests are taking on local authorities. They are simply relentless.

Look back. I have lived through several changes of power now, and what amazes me – not just with new governments, but with new cabinets – is that they stubbornly refuse to open the old filing cabinets (or perhaps the protocols don’t allow them to). Many of the lessons from the tragedies of the 70s, 80s and 90s are still valid, and the plans are good. Yet we have a habit of constantly reinventing the wheel, which is an insult to the families who went through so much and then worked with us for decades to prevent this from happening to a new generation.

I would urge you to read up on the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the documentation that goes with it. It has been chronically misunderstood. Emergency response at central government level requires real collaboration between the different government departments. The idea of ​​a lead government department depending on the type of emergency is really important, but it is also very important that there is coordination. All of this is not something you can learn in a couple of days, so engage with the idea of ​​emergency planning as an area of ​​ongoing professional development and know who to ask.

Understand when to ask for military support and when not to. New ministers tend to mix issues such as security, resilience, defence of the realm and preparedness. It is important not to assume that the military will be there as constant support or to sort everything out. Sending a military response to a civilian incident can have significant disadvantages. Understanding who is doing what is crucial.

One should not expect a situation that massively affects British citizens to only happen in the UK. Disasters abroad can have serious consequences, as can the need to suddenly repatriate large numbers of people. Last summer’s wildfires prompted a number of travel companies to get involved alongside the British Foreign Office. Evacuations from Sudan and Lebanon in recent years required the same handling here as an emergency.

It’s important to understand the impact that flooding has on households and communities. You’ll see a lot of that before the end of your first year in power. Many places flood repeatedly and that fundamentally affects our resilience and our morale as a nation. Community resilience is so much more than grab bags and three days’ worth of canned food.

“Community resilience is about so much more than grab bags and canned goods for three days”

Don’t be tempted to start from scratch with your own “shit list” – which Labour reportedly compiled last month. The Cabinet Office’s work on the National Security Risk Assessment is a good place to start; it’s a working document that is continually updated as new threats and geopolitical situations arise.

Take a short break from campaigning to hone your crisis management skills. Leading in a crisis is different from leadership and requires a long, hard look at your own skills before any activation. Listen to When the dust has settled as an audiobook if you are travelling through the country and listening to David Omand’s How to survive a crisisYou must be able to predict and imagine the future, looking far beyond the immediate picture.

Communicating in a crisis has changed forever in a post-truth, post-trust era, as the world reels from a global pandemic. Ensure communications in a tragedy remain authentic and transparent. For example, don’t simply pledge your support for a bereaved families’ charter – understand what it really means to get involved. Post-Covid, the window of public trust is short, and trust wanes fast. Openness is key; building credibility is critical. Responding to claims in the media and social media is a dance you can’t win. Responding cannot fight the negativity, it must run alongside it.

The most important thing we need to understand is that poverty, inadequate housing and poor health affect a country’s ability to respond to events. Crises do not create new cracks, but shine a harsh light on existing damage and vulnerabilities. Our leaders must be ready from day one to endure whatever happens and to embrace the good help that is all around them.

Lucy Easthope is a leading authority on disaster recovery. Her book When the Dust Settles is a Sunday Times bestseller. She is Professor of Mass Extinction and Pandemics at the Centre for Death and Society at the University of Bath.